Predictions
389 of 1,607 predictions match — page 5 of 8. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 242_052 | AI | AI-scaling | Cost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-drivi… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_054 | AI | AI-timing | Terafab initial capex $25B, total buildout $150B+ minimum, possibly $500B | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 245_002 | AI | AI-timing | Every company should or will be an AI company | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_028 | AI | AI-timing | Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderlin… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31 |
| 246_031 | AI | AI-scaling | Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_032 | AI | AI-scaling | Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_033 | AI | autonomous | Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of hum… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_034 | AI | AI-timing | Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_036 | AI | AI-timing | Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 246_044 | AI | AI-scaling | Two outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel fo… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_049 | AI | AI-scaling | Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_053 | AI | AI-scaling | ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-08-31 |
| 246_055 | AI | AI-scaling | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad h… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 230_048 | AI | AI-scaling | Agentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_001 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_015 | AI | AI-scaling | Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_016 | AI | AI-scaling | Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_025 | AI | AI-scaling | Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_026 | AI | AI-scaling | Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_045 | AI | AI-scaling | Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 232_018 | AI | AI-timing | We are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_046 | AI | AI-scaling | AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_050 | AI | AI-timing | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnera… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 235_010 | AI | AI-scaling | Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to ex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 235_035 | AI | AI-timing | Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_001 | AI | AI-timing | Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_002 | AI | AI-timing | We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quick… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_011 | AI | AI-scaling | AI agents will have voices in the near future. | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_018 | AI | AI-timing | We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_020 | AI | AI-scaling | The hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most peopl… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_026 | AI | orbital-AI | The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_029 | AI | AI-scaling | AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentall… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_030 | AI | AI-scaling | Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical pa… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 238_020 | AI | AI-timing | Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 238_040 | AI | AI-scaling | Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 fo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 239_004 | AI | AGI | xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_003 | AI | AI-scaling | NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_005 | AI | AI-timing | The organizational singularity will impact every company, nonprofit, and gove… | Salim Ismail | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_006 | AI | AI-timing | OpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decades | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_015 | AI | AI-timing | Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like chi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_031 | AI | AI-timing | Samsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_058 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_004 | AI | AI-timing | AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, o… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_013 | AI | AI-scaling | Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_019 | AI | AI-timing | AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_032 | AI | AI-timing | World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_033 | AI | AI-timing | Few frontier AI companies will be in China | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_034 | AI | AI-timing | One or two frontier AI companies in Europe | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_035 | AI | AI-timing | Maybe one frontier AI company in India | Eric Schmidt | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_036 | AI | AI-timing | No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |