Predictions
389 of 1,621 predictions match — page 2 of 8. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 235_006 | AI | AI-scaling | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 235_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | miss | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 235_014 | AI | AI-timing | Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constan… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 236_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 237_003 | AI | AI-timing | 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 237_006 | AI | AI-scaling | Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on … | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 237_009 | AI | AI-scaling | ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 237_022 | AI | AI-scaling | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents … | Alex Finn | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 237_024 | AI | AI-timing | Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transc… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 237_025 | AI | AI-timing | We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_010 | AI | AGI | AI takeoff/inflection is happening now | Emad Mostaque | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 238_023 | AI | AI-scaling | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in … | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_025 | AI | AI-timing | AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level | Emad Mostaque | 5/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_039 | AI | AI-timing | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_072 | AI | AI-scaling | Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 239_002 | AI | AGI | AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 … | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 239_003 | AI | AGI | We are currently in AI hard takeoff | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 240_004 | AI | AI-timing | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_016 | AI | AI-scaling | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 240_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_029 | AI | AI-scaling | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buil… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 240_032 | AI | AI-timing | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few y… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 240_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the ne… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 241_005 | AI | AI-scaling | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_006 | AI | AI-timing | Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_031 | AI | AI-timing | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_046 | AI | AI-timing | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_050 | AI | autonomous | AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new sol… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_053 | AI | NVIDIA | AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_062 | AI | AI-timing | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 242_010 | AI | AI-scaling | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new m… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 246_021 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 246_022 | AI | AI-scaling | Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | PolyMarket | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_023 | AI | AI-timing | Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. | PolyMarket | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 246_025 | AI | AI-timing | Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). | Sam Altman | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_026 | AI | AI-timing | In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Alt… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 246_037 | AI | NVIDIA | 50% of US data centers delayed, only 33% being built (due to chip/electrical … | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_047 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 246_051 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_052 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_001 | AI | $100T | xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_006 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_009 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 247_028 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_046 | AI | AI-timing | AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_057 | AI | AI-scaling | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 248_008 | AI | AI-timing | Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year. | Jack Dorsey | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 248_011 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon th… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |