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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.62	Efficient Waste Sorting for Circular Economy: A Confidence-guided comparison between One-Vs-All and One-Vs-Rest Classification Strategies with Human-in-the-Loop for Automated Waste Sorting	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.62	Dynamic Neural Graph Encoding of Inference Processes in Deep Weight Space	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Algebraic Model Counting for Global Analysis of Optimal Decision Trees	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Hidden Forgetting in Continual Multimodal Learning: When Accuracy Survives but Grounding Fails	arxiv 2026-07-02	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	A Multi-Branch Hierarchy-Aware Framework for Heterogeneous Audio Classification	arxiv 2026-07-02	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Single-Channel EEG-Based Cognitive Load Assessment in Online Learning: A Hybrid Deep Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-07-02	AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price	Education	66%
0.62	EPnG: Adaptive Expert Prune-and-Grow for Parameter-Efficient MoE Fine-tuning	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	Pmeta-TLA: Backdoor Attacks for Speech Classification Models via Meta-Learning with Timbre Leakage Attack	arxiv 2026-07-02	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.62	Dendritic In-Context Learning in a Single-Layer Spiking Neural Network	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Gaming Consensus: Coordinated Manipulation in Crowdsourced Fact-Checking	arxiv 2026-07-02	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	PARTREP: Learning What to Repeat for Decoder-only LLMs	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	MMAO-Cls: Metabolic Multi-Agent Optimization for Joint Feature Selection and Classifier Tuning	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	CoRe: Combined Rewards with Vision-Language Model Feedback for Preference-Aligned Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	A Reconfigurable Rocker-Bogie Robot for High Step Climbing and Turning	arxiv 2026-07-02	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.62	Subensemble Acceptance Method 3.0: General Corrections to Cumulants from Exact Conservation Constraints	arxiv 2026-07-02	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.62	Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will the US government officially acknowledge retrieving non-human craft before January 1, 2027?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-07-04	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.62	facebookresearch/nevergrad v0.6.0	github_release 2023-02-20	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 7?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Bitcoin price on July 12?	manifold 2026-07-06	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.62	FDA ANDA075983: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-22	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on July 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-07	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-22	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	New pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-12-01	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	Almost free money	manifold 2026-07-07	239_021 Money will stop being relevant at some point Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	30%
0.62	Weak-to-Strong Generalization via Direct On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-07-06	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.62	Weak-to-Strong Generalization via Direct On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Steering Optimisation Trajectories in Diffusion Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Topological Shape Representation for Aneurysm -- Bifurcation Detection	arxiv 2026-07-06	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	Noisy-Channel Minimum Bayes Risk Decoding	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Predicting Drafted Deck Strength for "Magic: the Gathering"	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Dashboard2Code: Evaluating Multimodal Models on Reconstructing Interactive Dashboards	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Robustness Verification of an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle-based Plankton Classifier	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Decentralized Aggregation of LLM Predictions via Wagering Mechanisms	arxiv 2026-07-05	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	One Framework for All: Cross-Modal Membership Inference for Generative Models	arxiv 2026-07-05	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.62	Server-side Anti-cheat in FPS games for Aimbot detection using Deep learning and Machine learning	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Server-side Anti-cheat in FPS games for Aimbot detection using Deep learning and Machine learning	arxiv 2026-07-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Hierarchical Multi-to-Single-Modal Knowledge Distillation for Disruption Prediction in EAST	arxiv 2026-07-05	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.62	Biologically Informed Deep Neural Networks for Multi-Omic Integration, Pathway Activity Inference and Risk Stratification in Cancer	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	Target-Guided Selective Reweighting for Physics-Informed Neural Network Inverse Problems: A Transfer Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-07-06	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Physiological Noise Augmentation Improves Non-Invasive Brain-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.62	Unsupervised Detection of Underground Tunnels in Ground-Penetrating Radar Using Depth-Restricted Reconstruction Scoring	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Enhancing the Forecasting Capability of Multi-Model Blending Algorithms for Extreme Precipitation via Joint Use of Station and Gridded Observations	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Decomposition for Bayesian Networks: Local and Parallel Inference	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	From Interaction to Intent: Inferring User Objectives from Provenance Logs	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Optimal Mixture-of-Experts Model Averaging for Conditional Generative Models	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Structure-Specific Representational Priors Causally Control the Grokking Delay	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Physics-Informed Graph Learning with Uncertainty Awareness for Open-Set Domain Generalization in Fault Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	You Frame It: How Conceptual Representations Shape LLM Detection and Reasoning about Antisemitism	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Don't Commit Alone: Joint Token Commitment in Diffusion Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	GelNeuro: A Sensing-Computing Integrated Neuromorphic Tactile System for Texture Recognition	arxiv 2026-07-06	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.62	Integrated Graph Search and Model Predictive Control for Smooth and Efficient Path Planning in Autonomous Vehicles	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Electromagnetic Scoot for Dyons Revisited	arxiv 2026-07-05	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.62	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 9?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 9?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.62	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-12-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.62	Who cancels the SpaceX–Anthropic compute deal first?	manifold 2026-07-08	248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	30%
0.62	Will my Manifold be able to turn a profit this week?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-07-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	RMISC: A Large-scale Real-world Multivariate Corpus for Time Series Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-07-07	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.62	Spider 2.0-AIFunc: Extending Real-World Text-to-SQL to AI-Native SQL Workflows	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Decision-Focused Scenario Generation and Selection for Efficient and Robust Grid Dispatch	arxiv 2026-07-07	INF_030 By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive to Fortune 500 firms — granting small businesses access to tools rivaling those of large enterprises. Dario Amodei	AI	82%
0.62	ArtisanCAD: An Industrial-Level CAD Agent with Expert-Grounded Knowledge Distillation	arxiv 2026-07-07	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.62	EvalLoop: A Methodology for Evaluation-Driven Iterative Improvement of Business AI Systems	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Training-Free Acceleration for Vision-Language-Action Models with Action Caching and Refinement	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Uncertainty-Aware Velocity Correction for Proprioceptive Vehicle Localization using Evidential Mamba	arxiv 2026-07-06	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.62	Domain-Adaptive Climate Downscaling Under Temporal Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-07-06	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	$\mathbfλ$-VAE: Variance Equalization for Posterior Collapse	arxiv 2026-07-06	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	InvWeaver: Deductive Feedback for Invariant Synthesis in Interacting-Loop Programs	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	Delay-Aware Active Triangulation with Uncertainty-Driven Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Counter-UAS	arxiv 2026-07-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	Delay-Aware Active Triangulation with Uncertainty-Driven Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Counter-UAS	arxiv 2026-07-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Genuine Multi-Entropy in the Toric Code	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	FDA ANDA076996: RISPERIDONE (RISPERIDONE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL INC	fda 2026-07-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.62	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-25	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.62	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.62	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.62	Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-25	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.62	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.62	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.62	Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-27	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.62	Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-04-23	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	14%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	14%
0.62	microsoft q3 results top expectations driven by intelligent cloud strength 1091450.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_033 Global HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute critical resource constraint in the AI compute supply chain. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	75%
0.62	solaris energy infrastructure inc q1 123000690.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.62	ch robinson chrw q1 2026 232738016.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.62	N82E16824281393?Item=N82E16824281393&cm sp=Homepage SS P2 24 281 393 04292026	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.62	17000538	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	14%