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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	FiberTune: Preserving Action-Fiber Visual Residuals in Vision-Language-Action Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Physics-Guided Dual Decoding and Spectral Supervision for Global 3D Hydrometeor Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Gradient-Guided Reward Optimization for Inference-time Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Clinically Grounded Privacy Evaluation of Medical LMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.61	How Far Can Prompting Go for Minimal-Edit Ukrainian Grammatical Error Correction?	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	TruthSplit: Operationalizing Conditional Validity in Arguments Through Multi-Perspective Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	The Amplifying Mirror: Locating and Steering the Partisan Direction inside a Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-06-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Post-Newtonian analysis of the quantum signatures of gravity	arxiv 2026-06-08	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.61	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in June?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-10	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.61	Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TSTST?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	A History-Aware Visually Grounded Critic for Computer Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	++nnU-Net: Scaling nnU-Net with Prefix-Based Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	UniDexTok: A Unified Dexterous Hand Tokenizer from Real Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.61	Is Fairness Truly Fair? Towards Reliable Lipschitz Fairness in Multi-Task Learning via Fixed-\texorpdfstring{$δ$}{delta} Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	STORM: Stepwise Token Optimization with Reward-Guided Beam Search	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Expert-Level Crisis Detection in Mental Health Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Towards Robust Arabic Speech Emotion Recognition with Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Emotion Profiling in LLM-Based Literary Translation: Systematic Shifts Across MT and Post-Editing	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Efficiently Learning Drifting Halfspaces with Massart Noise	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Can we trust our models? Epistemic calibration in second-order classification	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Dirichlet-Guided Group Forecasting for Alleviating Over-smoothing in Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-09	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	ANCHOR: Autoregressive Non-intrusive Chunk-Ordered Refinement for Joint Multi-Resolution Speech Quality Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Enhancing Multilingual LLM-based ASR with Mixture of Experts and Dynamic Downsampling	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Compiling Rewrite Rules to Finite-State Transducers with the Worsening Trick	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Information-Preserving Continuous Occupancy Mapping with Variance-Weighted Submap Joining	arxiv 2026-06-09	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	FDA ANDA077132: RISEDRONATE SODIUM (RISEDRONATE SODIUM) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA200296: RISEDRONATE SODIUM (RISEDRONATE SODIUM) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.11.0	github_release 2026-06-10	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	Will Ashlyn Krueger be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will France win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will "Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-11	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.61	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	SPEA2$^+$: Improved Density Estimation in SPEA2 with Provable Runtime Guarantees	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	Implicit Neural Representations of Individual Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	AnchorEdit: Maintaining Temporal Consistency in Multi-turn Image Editing via Causal Memory	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Multi-View In-Cabin Monitoring System for Public Transport Vehicles	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	FreeBridge: Variational Schrödinger Bridges for Cellular Transition Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FreeBridge: Variational Schrödinger Bridges for Cellular Transition Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	A Riemannian Approach to Low-Rank Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	Integral Formulation of QENDy for Robust Nonlinear System Identification	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Beyond Fully Random Masking: Attention-Guided Denoising and Optimization for Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Which Speech Representation Better Matches Text-Native Reasoning? A Study of Speech-Text Alignment on Frame Rate and Representation	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.61	Dummy Backdoor as a Defense: Removing Unknown Backdoors via Shared Internal Mechanisms for Generative LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.61	SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Human-Guided Co-Manipulation of Carbon Fiber Plies	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	A mathematical framework for centromere-aware evaluation of human genome assemblies	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.61	FDA BLA761369: HYMPAVZI (MARSTACIMAB-HNCQ) — PFIZER INC	fda 2026-06-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.13.0	github_release 2025-12-11	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.12.0	github_release 2025-11-21	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_lammps-0.3.0	github_release 2025-10-24	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	How many people will attend Manifest 2026?	manifold 2026-06-12	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	Heterogeneous LiDAR Early Fusion and Learned Re-Ranking Strategy for Robust Long-Term Place Recognition in Unstructured Environments	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Towards More General Control of Diffusion Models Using Jeffrey Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	MiniPIC: Flexible Position-Independent Caching in <100LOC	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	NaturalFlow: Reducing Disruptive Pauses for Natural Speech Flow in Simultaneous Speech-to-Speech Translation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.61	Emotional regulation improves deep learning-based image classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	MLUBench: A Benchmark for Lifelong Unlearning Evaluation in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	MaskWAM: Unifying Mask Prompting and Prediction for World-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Optical Implementation of Equilibrium Propagation Using Spatial Photonic Ising Machines	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.61	Clustering Node Attributed Networks with Graph Neural Networks and Self Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	ProtoX-AD: Self-Explainable Time Series Anomaly Detection and Characterization	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Learning-Augmented Approximation for Unrelated-Machines Makespan Scheduling	arxiv 2026-06-11	232_005 Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. Ben Horowitz	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.61	Learning-Augmented Approximation for Unrelated-Machines Makespan Scheduling	arxiv 2026-06-11	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	How Useful is Causal Invariance for Domain Adaptation in Finite-Sample Settings?	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Shopping Reasoning Bench: An Expert-Authored Benchmark for Multi-Turn Conversational Shopping Assistants	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Dolph2Vec: Self-Supervised Representations of Dolphin Vocalizations	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Detect, Remask, Repair: Diffusion Editing for Faithful Summarization of Evolving Contexts	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Helping Figures Tell their Story! Paper-Grounded Video Generation Explaining Complex Scientific Figures	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	FDA ANDA204196: DEXTROMETHORPHAN HYDROBROMIDE AND QUINIDINE SULFATE (DEXTROMETHORPHAN HYDROBROMIDE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.6.2	github_release 2019-03-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	When will OpenCode not default to a free model?	manifold 2026-06-14	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.61	When will OpenCode not default to a free model?	manifold 2026-06-14	IND_026 Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, not where they are today' — 'this is the worst the models will ever be'. Next-generation models will 'eat your scaffolding for breakfast'; manual software configuration, standar... Kevin Weil	Labor/Jobs	61%
0.61	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2025-07-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	S&P 500 Race to 8k vs 7k: Which happens first?	manifold 2026-06-14	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) (CIK 0000769397)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	CMQ_053 Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. Brett Adcock	Robotics	55%
0.61	Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS) (CIK 0001821769)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.0	github_release 2022-08-10	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	MA-SBI: Misspecification-Aware Simulation-Based Inference via Side-Channel Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Scaling LLM Reasoning from Minimal Labels: A Semi-Supervised Framework with a Lightweight Verifier	arxiv 2026-06-15	240_014 Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months Sam Altman	AI	50%
0.61	Fast When, Careful Who: Dual-Process Multiparty Turn-Taking with Diffusion Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	SPRI: SVD-Partitioned Residual Initialization for Data-Constrained MoE Upcycling	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	SDS-LoRA: Overcoming Anisotropic Gradient Scaling in Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	A Comprehensive Survey of Medical Image Segmentation: Challenges, Benchmarks, and Beyond	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Long-Context Modeling via GSS-Transformer Hybrid Architecture with Learnable Mixing	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	PVminerLLM2: Improving Structured Extraction of Patient Voice via Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Near-Optimal Stochastic Linear Bandits with Delay	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Beyond Artifacts: Towards Generalizable Synthetic Song Detection via Music-Intrinsic Features	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Beyond Artifacts: Towards Generalizable Synthetic Song Detection via Music-Intrinsic Features	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Scalable and Interpretable Representation Alignment with Ordinal Similarity	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Evaluating LLM Personalization via Semantic Constraint Verification	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	To forget is to preserve: Machine Unlearning for 3D medical image segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Scaling Human and G2P Supervision for Robust Phonetic Transcription	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	The limits of interpretability in multiple linear regression	arxiv 2026-06-14	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	The limits of interpretability in multiple linear regression	arxiv 2026-06-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	An Exploratory Study of Blood Glucose Estimation from Photoplethysmography Signals using Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-14	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	Context-Aware RL for Agentic and Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Vernier: Probing Representational Misalignment Behind Lexical Gaps in Causal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Anisotropic Template Ansätze for Robust Positive Invariance under State-Dependent Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	TO-SoFiT: Topology Optimization of Hydraulic Soft Fish Tail Design for programmable undulating locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.61	Trust the Right Teacher: Quality-Aware Self-Distillation for GUI Grounding	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	A Quantitative Analysis of Multimodal Biomarkers in Alzheimer's Disease	arxiv 2026-06-16	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	Handling Feature Heterogeneity with Learnable Graph Patches	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Bridging Spatial And Frequency Views For Disaster Assessment: Benefits And Limitations	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	A Convex Quasilinearization Method for Solving Nonlinear PDEs with Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	Predictive Analytics in E-Commerce for CustomerBehavior Forecasting using hybrid Ret-DNN withXGBoost Model	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Revisiting Structural Dependency in Autoregressive Multi-Task Table Recognition via Order-Independent Cell-Level Representations	arxiv 2026-06-16	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	Reducing Learner Redundancy in Boosting via Residual Orthogonalization	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Perron--Frobenius Operator Matching for Generative Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Generalization Guarantees for Multi-Input Neural Operator Learning in Sobolev Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Tight $L_\infty$ Sample Complexity for Low-Degree and Sparse Boolean Polynomials	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Finsler Geometry, Graph Neural Networks, and You	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Towards Fast GNN Surrogates for CO2 Migration in Complex Geological Formations	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_053 Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical High-Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGR) on a single remote heavily-regulated site — will emerge as the dominant deployment architecture for advanced fission, superseding scattered S... Isaiah Taylor	Energy	28%
0.61	Agentic Discovery of Non-Canonical Antimicrobial Peptides with AMPGAN v3	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Are you speaking my languages? On spoken language adherence in multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	A Hybrid Optimization Framework for Grasp Synthesis under Partial Observations	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Acceleration-induced spectral blind spots in stimulated atomic transitions	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.61	Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	246_046 Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years. Peter Diamandis	Real Estate	50%
0.61	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.61	Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) (CIK 0000769397)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	CMQ_053 Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. Brett Adcock	Robotics	55%
0.61	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	AdsMind: A Physics-Grounded Multi-Agent System for Self-Correcting Discovery of Adsorption Configurations on Heterogeneous Catalyst Surfaces	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Equivariant Graph Neural Networks Improve Optical Spectra Prediction for Materials Screening	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	Equivariant Graph Neural Networks Improve Optical Spectra Prediction for Materials Screening	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.61	Bayesian Anytime Pareto Set Identification for Multi-Objective Multi-Armed Bandits	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Bayesian Anytime Pareto Set Identification for Multi-Objective Multi-Armed Bandits	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	NeuralMUSIC: A Hybrid Neural-Subspace Framework for Robot Sound Source Localization	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Trust the Right Teacher: Quality-Aware Self-Distillation for GUI Grounding	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	Online Reward-Punishment Learning from Fixed-Channel Perceptual Event Streams without Environment Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-17	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Online Reward-Punishment Learning from Fixed-Channel Perceptual Event Streams without Environment Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	RouteJudge: An Open Platform for Reproducible and Preference-Aware LLM Routing	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Ensuring Trustworthy Online A/B Testing: Addressing Five Key Questions on CUPED	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	BLADE: Scalable Bi-level Adaptive Data Selection for LLM Training	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	RECOM: A Validity Discrimination Tradeoff in Automatic Metrics for Open Ended Reddit Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Enhancing Multilingual Reasoning via Steerable Model Merging	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Improving Medical Communication using Rubric-Guided Counterfactual Recommendations	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Observability and Consistency Analysis for Visual-Inertial Navigation with Anchored Feature Parameterizations	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Mobile Pedipulation for Object Sliding via Hierarchical Control on a Wheeled Bipedal Robot	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	C-ARC: Continuous-Adaptive Range Clustering for Non-Repetitive LiDAR Sensors	arxiv 2026-06-17	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Starmer out by June 22, 2026?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Starmer out by June 22, 2026?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.61	Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will a mod comment on this market?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-06-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	DataMagic: Transforming Tabular Data into Data Insight Video	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	DataMagic: Transforming Tabular Data into Data Insight Video	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Boundary Embedding Shaping with Adaptive Contrastive Learning for Graph Structural Disentanglement	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Frequency-Aware Flow Matching for Continuous and Consistent Robotic Action Generation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Evaluation of EEG Foundation Models for Event-Based Burst-Suppression Detection in ICU	arxiv 2026-06-18	248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. Dave Blundin	AI	37%
0.61	Evaluation of EEG Foundation Models for Event-Based Burst-Suppression Detection in ICU	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Confidence Calibration for Multimodal LLMs: An Empirical Study through Medical VQA	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	ParaScale: Scale-Calibrated Camera-Motion Transfer via a Gauge-Invariant Parallax Number	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Analyzing the Narration Gap in LLM-Solver Loops	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.61	Analyzing the Narration Gap in LLM-Solver Loops	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	FlowFake: Liquid Networks for Audio Deepfake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Topological Data Analysis for High-Dimensional Dynamic Process Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	PU-UNet: Stable Multiplicative Interactions for Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-18	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Stochastic Linear Contextual Bandits with Bounded Noise: A Set-Membership Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	A fast direct solver based neural network for solving PDEs	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.61	A Differentiable Composite Approximation Framework for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Maneuvering Modeling from Sea-Trial Data	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.61	Evaluation of Augmented Reality-based Intuitive Interface for Robot-Assisted Transesophageal Echocardiography: A User Study	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Moduli Stabilisation for ADD and the Dark Dimension Scenario	arxiv 2026-06-17	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will France win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Starmer out by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Curaçao?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%