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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.68	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.68	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.68	FDA ANDA217281: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — NOVUGEN	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.68	huggingface/transformers v5.8.0	github_release 2026-05-05	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.68	Physics-Grounded Multi-Agent Architecture for Traceable, Risk-Aware Human-AI Decision Support in Manufacturing	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.68	MEMTIER: Tiered Memory Architecture and Retrieval Bottleneck Analysis for Long-Running Autonomous AI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	MenuNet: A Strategy-Proof Mechanism for Matching Markets	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.68	Terminus-4B: Can a Smaller Model Replace Frontier LLMs at Agentic Execution Tasks?	arxiv 2026-05-04	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.68	Gated Subspace Inference for Transformer Acceleration	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Programmatic Context Augmentation for LLM-based Symbolic Regression	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Hybrid Inspection and Task-Based Access Control in Zero-Trust Agentic AI	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.68	AcademiClaw: When Students Set Challenges for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	BIT.UA-AAUBS at ArchEHR-QA 2026: Evaluating Open-Source and Proprietary LLMs via Prompting in Low-Resource QA	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Task-Aware Scanning Parameter Configuration for Robotic Inspection Using Vision Language Embeddings and Hyperdimensional Computing	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.100.0	github_release 2026-05-06	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.68	Storage Is Not Memory: A Retrieval-Centered Architecture for Agent Recall	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	63%
0.68	Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	BioResearcher: Scenario-Guided Multi-Agent for Translational Medicine	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.68	Gaming the Metric, Not the Harm: Certifying Safety Audits against Strategic Platform Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.68	Multi-agent decision making: A Blackwell's informativeness approach	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Towards Steering without Sacrifice: Principled Training of Steering Vectors for Prompt-only Interventions	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Automated Clinical Report Generation for Remote Cognitive Remediation: Comparing Knowledge-Engineered Templates and LLMs in Low-Resource Settings	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	More Is Not Always Better: Cross-Component Interference in LLM Agent Scaffolding	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Architecture Matters: Comparing RAG Systems under Knowledge Base Poisoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.68	TouchDrive: Electronics-Free Tactile Sensing Interface for Assistive Grasping	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	CKT-WAM: Parameter-Efficient Context Knowledge Transfer Between World Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Modular Reinforcement Learning For Cooperative Swarms	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Events as Triggers for Behavioral Diversity in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Attacks and Mitigations for Distributed Governance of Agentic AI under Byzantine Adversaries	arxiv 2026-05-12	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.68	Scaling Laws and Tradeoffs in Recurrent Networks of Expressive Neurons	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Rethink the Role of Neural Decoders in Quantum Error Correction	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.68	Shaping Zero-Shot Coordination via State Blocking	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.68	EVA-Bench: A New End-to-end Framework for Evaluating Voice Agents	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Reinforced Collaboration in Multi-Agent Flow Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	Video2GUI: Synthesizing Large-Scale Interaction Trajectories for Generalized GUI Agent Pretraining	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Lang2MLIP: End-to-End Language-to-Machine Learning Interatomic Potential Development with Autonomous Agentic Workflows	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	From Volume to Value: Preference-Aligned Memory Construction for On-Device RAG	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.68	Training data attribution in diffusion models via mirrored unlearning and noise-consistent skew	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	Agent Bazaar: Enabling Economic Alignment in Multi-Agent Marketplaces	arxiv 2026-05-17	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Bitcoin above 90k before 2027?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-30	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.68	30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-26	234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	59%
0.68	30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-25	247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.68	RoboWits: Unexpected Challenges for Robotic Creative Problem Solving	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Gram: Assessing sabotage propensities via automated alignment auditing	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.68	ProjectionBench: Evaluating Scientific Hypothesis Generation in LLMs Under Progressive Information Disclosure	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.68	Double-Edged Sword or Sharp Tool? Designing and Evaluating Triadic LLM-Teacher Collaboration for K-12 Writing at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.68	AgentSchool: An LLM-Powered Multi-Agent Simulation for Education	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_002 Educational systems must pivot from teaching skill acquisition and execution to teaching orchestration of agentic swarms and discovery of purpose — value accrues to individuals who master AI orchestration over traditional knowledge work; rendering trad... Alex Finn	Education	50%
0.68	The Little Book of Generative AI Foundations: An Intuitive Mathematical Primer	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	LLM-Evolved Domain-Independent Heuristics for Symbolic AI Planning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	AnyMo: Scaling Any-Modality Conditional Motion Generation with Masked Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	The Complexity of Verifying Feedforward Neural Networks in Quantised Settings	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.68	DynaGraph: Lightweight Multi-Model Interaction Framework via Dynamic Topological Reconfiguration	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Scaling Laws for Agent Harnesses via Effective Feedback Compute	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.68	WorldMemArena: Evaluating Multimodal Agent Memory Through Action-World Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.105.2	github_release 2026-05-29	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	2nd largest company end of June 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	at the end of 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality tv ep to a prompt?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-31	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	51%
0.68	at the end of 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality tv ep to a prompt?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-31	INF_073 AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. Elon Musk	AI	48%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	238_033 Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario) Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.68	Unveiling the Limits of Large Language Models in Inferring Pragmatic Meaning from Non-Verbal Responses	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Evidence-Gated LLM Priors for Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Agent Operating Systems (AOS): Integrating Agentic Control Planes into, and Beyond, Traditional Operating Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.68	Everywhere Learning: Artificial Intelligence with Pointwise Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	CRAB-Bench: Evaluating LLM Agents under Complex Task Dependencies and Human-aligned User Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	PolySpeech-100: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Speech Understanding Across 100+ Languages and Dialects	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	FDA NDA217379: NDA217379 ((unspecified)) — FLEX PHARMA, LLC	fda 2026-05-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-05	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.68	LadderMan: Learning Humanoid Perceptive Ladder Climbing	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	TinyML-Driven Cybersecurity for Autonomous Spacecraft: Latency-Accuracy Analysis for SPARTA RF and Cyber Threat Detection	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Let It Be Simple: One-Step Action Generation for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Enhancing Software Engineering Through Closed-Loop Memory Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Agents' Last Exam	arxiv 2026-06-03	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.68	Agents' Last Exam	arxiv 2026-06-03	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.68	Agentic Monte Carlo: Simulating Reinforcement Learning for Black-Box Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Probing Outcome-Level Resemblance and Mechanism-Level Alignment in LLM Risk Decisions: Evidence from the St. Petersburg Game	arxiv 2026-06-03	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.68	HORIZON: Recoverability-Governed Curriculum for Physical-Domain Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	A Comprehensive Anatomy of Human and DeepSeek-R1 LLM Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Bootstrap Theory of Representational Emergence: Explanatory Insufficiency as a Driver of Representation Learning and World Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Do Video Foundation Models Understand Intuitive Physics? A Layerwise Probing Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Seeing the Hivemind: A Consensus-Aware Interaction Technique for Mitigating AI Homogenization	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	TheoremBench: Evaluating LLMs on Theorem Proving in Formal Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.68	Diverse Thinking Schemata Elicit Better Reasoning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.68	Momentum for Reasoning: Dense Intrinsic Signals in Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	AI-Augmented Closed-Loop Quality Engineering: A Reference Architecture for Continuous Software Quality Intelligence	arxiv 2026-06-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.68	RAM: Reachability Across Morphologies	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	$ω$-EVA: Envision, Verify, and Act with Latent Interactive World Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Safe, Fluent and Acceptable Motion Generation and Execution for Human--Robot Interaction in Manufacturing Environments	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	What Fits (Into Few Tokens) Doesn't Overfit: Compression and Generalization in ML Research Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Human-AI Teaming Through the Lens of Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.68	Unifying Data, Memory, and Compute Efficiency in LLM training: A Survey	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	ActiveMem: Distributed Active Memory for Long-Horizon LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	ComBench: A Benchmark for Rigorous Proof Reasoning and Constructive Realization in Olympiad-Level Combinatorics	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.68	Harnessing the Collective Intelligence of AI Agents in the Wild for New Discoveries	arxiv 2026-06-09	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.68	Reasoning or Memorization? Direction-Aware Diversity Exploration in LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Regimes: An Auditable, Held-Out-Gated Improvement Loop Demonstrated on LongMemEval with ActiveGraph	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.68	Local Is Not a Sufficient Privacy Boundary: Governing OS-Integrated On-Device AI	arxiv 2026-06-08	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.68	Local Is Not a Sufficient Privacy Boundary: Governing OS-Integrated On-Device AI	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.68	JOIN: Anchor-Grasp-Conditioned Joining via Opposition, Inference, and Navigation for Bimanual Assistive Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	AgniNav: Configuration-Driven Cross-Embodiment Local Planning for Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Deterministic Execution of ROS 2 Applications via Lingua Franca	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	FDA ANDA219552: PEMIGATINIB (PEMIGATINIB) — SANDOZ INC	fda 2026-06-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.68	TAHOE: Text-to-SQL with Automated Hint Optimization from Experience	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Intelligent Automation for Embodied Benchmark Construction: Pipelines, Embodiments, Simulators, and Trends	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Existential Indifference: Self-Nonpreservation as a Necessary Architectural Condition for Aligned Superintelligence (or: The Suicidal AI)	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	Skill-Augmented AI Agents for Medical Research Analysis: An Exploratory Multi-Model Human Evaluation in an NSCLC Transcriptomic Biomarker Task	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.68	TouchThinker: Scaling Tactile Commonsense Reasoning to the Open World with Large-scale Data and Action-aware Representation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	SkillJuror: Measuring How Agent Skill Organization Changes Runtime Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Search Discipline for Long-Horizon Research Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.68	Search Discipline for Long-Horizon Research Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.68	Search Discipline for Long-Horizon Research Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	VLGA: Vision-Language-Geometry-Action Models for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	SPCX (SpaceX) up or down on Monday June 15? (vs. Friday)	manifold 2026-06-12	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.68	Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-12	246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	46%
0.68	Reasoning as Pattern Matching: Shared Mechanisms in Human and LLM Everyday Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Neuro-Symbolic Agents for Regulated Process Automation: Challenges and Research Agenda	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	TerraBench: Can Agents Reason Over Heterogeneous Earth-System Data?	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.68	Exploring How Agent Voice Accents Shape Human-AI Collaboration in K-12 Group Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	Definitional alignment before capability alignment: a Design-Science framework for adjudicating claims about AGI	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.68	M*: A Modular, Extensible, Serving System for Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	DARRMS -- An Efficient Algorithm for Dynamic Attention Radius in Resource-Constrained Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	When will we see terrorism against AI?	manifold 2026-04-27	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.68	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.68	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.68	Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.68	Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.68	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.68	Will Google or NVIDIA be worth more on June 1?	manifold 2026-05-01	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.68	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.68	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators	Macro/Economy	54%
0.68	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.98.1	github_release 2026-05-04	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.68	Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.68	Redefining AI Red Teaming in the Agentic Era: From Weeks to Hours	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_001 The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of... Alex Finn	AI	51%
0.68	What You Think is What You See: Driving Exploration in VLM Agents via Visual-Linguistic Curiosity	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Discovering Reinforcement Learning Interfaces with Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	From Knowledge to Action: Outcomes of the 2025 Large Language Model (LLM) Hackathon for Applications in Materials Science and Chemistry	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Stable Agentic Control: Tool-Mediated LLM Architecture for Autonomous Cyber Defense	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.68	U-Define: Designing User Workflows for Hard and Soft Constraints in LLM-Based Planning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Benchmarking Local Language Models for Social Robots using Edge Devices	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Evaluating Reasoning Models for Queries with Presuppositions	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Awaking Spatial Intelligence in Unified Multimodal Understanding and Generation	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-08	S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028	robotaxi_deployment	45%
0.68	AI Co-Mathematician: Accelerating Mathematicians with Agentic AI	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	45%
0.68	From Agent Loops to Deterministic Graphs: Execution Lineage for Reproducible AI-Native Work	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	Prediction and Empowerment: A Theory of Agency through Bridge Interfaces	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.68	Skill1: Unified Evolution of Skill-Augmented Agents via Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Back to the Beginning of Heuristic Design: Bridging Code and Knowledge with LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Agentic, Context-Aware Risk Intelligence in the Internet of Value	arxiv 2026-05-07	247_053 AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	38%
0.68	BRICKS: Compositional Neural Markov Kernels for Zero-Shot Radiation-Matter Simulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.68	UniPrefill: Universal Long-Context Prefill Acceleration via Block-wise Dynamic Sparsification	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Multi-Dimensional Behavioral Evaluation of Agentic Stock Prediction Systems Using LLM Judges with Closed-Loop Reinforcement Learning Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Multi-Stream LLMs: Unblocking Language Models with Parallel Streams of Thoughts, Inputs and Outputs	arxiv 2026-05-12	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.68	Attacks and Mitigations for Distributed Governance of Agentic AI under Byzantine Adversaries	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.68	Grid Games: The Power of Multiple Grids for Quantizing Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Intrinsic Vicarious Conditioning for Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Disentangled Sparse Representations for Concept-Separated Diffusion Unlearning	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	The Illusion of Power Capping in LLM Decode: A Phase-Aware Energy Characterisation Across Attention Architectures	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.68	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.102.0	github_release 2026-05-13	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.68	When is Warmstarting Effective for Scaling Language Models?	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Understanding and Accelerating the Training of Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	From Sycophantic Consensus to Pluralistic Repair: Why AI Alignment Must Surface Disagreement	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.68	Silent Collapse in Recursive Learning Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.68	Not All Timesteps Matter Equally: Selective Alignment Knowledge Distillation for Spiking Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Diagnosing Training Inference Mismatch in LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.68	Will there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-16	ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	29%
0.68	Will SpaceX complete a Starship integrated test flight reaching orbital insertion by June 14, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-16	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	22%