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80,311 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 139 of 176, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 232_028 In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong. Ben Horowitz | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 242_038 Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I win any prize in the next prize drawing (Drawing #30)(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_004 Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 55% | |
| 0.57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (cosmic voids)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 240_008 NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Does Starship flight 150 happen before New Glenn 15?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman | Space | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. Peter Diamandis | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | will x have a significant other
by the end of ross(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 242_049 W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-22 | CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg | Other | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | |
| 0.57 | Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 237_008 App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. Alex Finn | Consumer | 41% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will I solve an Erdos problem?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_021 Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 53% | ||
| 0.57 | UEFA Champions League 2025/26 final [Genuine Prediction](market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | FUT_011 By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal geographic locations; below 1 cent per kWh across vast majority of globe; even in poorest-irradiance/highest-regulatory-burden regions costs not exceeding 1.5 cents per kWh. 2... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Manifest 2027 have the option to buy tickets using mana?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Manifest 2027 have the option to buy tickets using mana?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% |