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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	Model Poisoning Against Federated Model Adaptation with Chain of Bit-Flips	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Closing the Prior-Posterior Loop: Self-Reflective Molecular Design with Analysis-Driven LLM Iteration	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Can Data Work be Reparative?	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_025 Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Reliable to Expressive: A Curriculum for Rubric-Following Safety Judges	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	Crop Recommendation and Agricultural Query Answering System Using Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks and Hybrid Retrieval Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.63	REFLECT: Intervention-Supported Error Attribution for Silent Failures in LLM Agent Traces	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	TRIAGE: Dialectical Reasoning for Explainable Risk Prediction on Irregularly Sampled Medical Time Series with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Intrinsic Selection and Particle Resampling for Inference-Time Scaling Beyond Domain Verifiability	arxiv 2026-06-07	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	STAR: Rethinking MoE Routing as Structure-Aware Subspace Learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	When Do Local Score Models Extrapolate Across Size? A Diagnostic Theory and Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	In-Context Learning for Latent Space Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.63	Data-driven discovery of governing differential equations across physical systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.63	Report the Floor: A Training-Free Conformal Interval Is a Mandatory Baseline for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	Machine-Learning Emulation of Satellite Greenhouse Gas Retrievals: Stability over Time	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.63	DynaCF: Mitigating Shortcut Learning in Reward Models via Dynamic Counterfactual Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Online Learning with Recency: Algorithms for Sliding-window Streaming Multi-armed Bandits	arxiv 2026-06-08	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	C$^3$ache: Accelerating World Action Models with Cross Inference Chunk Cache	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Compositional Approximation Can Strictly Outperform Superpositional Approximation	arxiv 2026-06-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Tyan-WP: A Wind Power Foundation Model for Ultra-Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Beyond Accuracy: Community Perspectives on Machine Translation	arxiv 2026-06-08	241_055 Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space Peter Diamandis	Space	51%
0.63	Reasoning without Gold Standards: A Proxy-Judge Theory of Autoformalization	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	Beyond Averages: Evaluating LLMs on Human Survey Replication at the Distributional Level	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Analyzing the Correlation Between Hallucinations and Knowledge Conflicts in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Forward-Free Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Modeling Components and Connections in Cyber-Physical Systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	ReGIL: Retrieval-Guided Imitation Learning from a Single Demonstration	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Bridged SBI: Correcting Biased Low-Fidelity Posteriors for Cost-Efficient High-Fidelity Inference	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	PhysGraph: A Physics-aware 3D Scene Graph for Perception and Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Certified spectral functions from lattice Monte Carlo data	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-01-06	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will I keep my duolingo streak through the end of this year (2026)(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-06	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.63	ReasonAlloc: Hierarchical Decoding-Time KV Cache Budget Allocation for Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Designed by Journalists, but Is It for Readers? Rethinking AI Disclosures and Transparency in News	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	RAT: Reference-Augmented Training for ASV Anti-Spoofing	arxiv 2026-06-09	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.63	Earth-OneVision: Extending Remote Sensing Multimodal Large Language Models to More Sensor Modalities and Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Dmsh: A Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Framework for All-Quad Mesh Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Advancing the State-of-the-Art in Empirical Privacy Auditing	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.63	Atomic Intent Reasoning: Bringing LLM Semantics to Industrial Cross-Domain Recommendations	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Automated Pronunciation Evaluation for Korean Toddler Speech using Speech Diarization and Self-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	Fisher-Guided Progressive Parameter Selection for Adaptive Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Emotion Profiling in LLM-Based Literary Translation: Systematic Shifts Across MT and Post-Editing	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Do Transformers Actually Help Intrusion Detection? A Temporal Sequence Evaluation on CIC-IDS2017	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	A Systematic Approach for Selecting Trajectories for Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	Dirichlet-Guided Group Forecasting for Alleviating Over-smoothing in Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Unsupervised Deep Learning for Limited-Angle STEM-EDX Tomography -- Application to 3D Chemical Analysis of Phase-Change Memory Devices	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	PADD: Path-Aligned Decompression Distillation for Non-Router Teacher to Guide MoE Student Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	The Order Matters: Sequential Fine-Tuning of LLaMA for Coherent Automated Essay Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	POPSICLE: Benchmark Datasets for Segmentation and Localization in CryoET	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	What Demonstration Curation Metrics Do to Your Policy	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	A Continuous-Time Markov Chain Framework for Insertion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Effective Training Principles of Physical Reservoirs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Convergence Rates for Neural-Network Estimation with Current-Status Data	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Nonlinear Estimator: Dual Bayesian Affine Estimators for Parameter Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Decision-Making under Combinatorial Risk	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Self-Supervised Relevance Modelling in Autonomous Driving via Counterfactual Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Will France win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Natural-Language Temporal Grounding in Hour-Long Videos is a Search Problem: A Benchmark and Empirical Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Generalization Hacking: Models Can Game Reinforcement Learning by Preventing Behavioral Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.63	Runtime Skill Audit: Targeted Runtime Probing for Agent Skill Security	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	TreeSeeker: Tree-Structured Trial, Error, and Return in Deep Search	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	ISE: An Execution-Grounded Recipe for Multi-Turn OS-Agent Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	MPC-Patch-Bench: Security-Aware LLM Code Patch for Multi-Party Computation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.63	Finding Multiple Interpretations in Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	REACH: Interpretability-Driven Feature Identification and Architecture Compression for Multi-Channel Vehicular Channel Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	RLCSD: Reinforcement Learning with Contrastive On-Policy Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	DroneShield-AI: A Multi-Modal Sensor Fusion Framework for Real-Time Autonomous Drone Threat Detection, Behavioral Intent Classification, and Swarm Intelligence in Contested Airspace	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	DroneShield-AI: A Multi-Modal Sensor Fusion Framework for Real-Time Autonomous Drone Threat Detection, Behavioral Intent Classification, and Swarm Intelligence in Contested Airspace	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	Family-Aware Residual Architecture for Predicting Quantum Circuit Simulation Performance	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	APEX: A Network-Native Time-Series Foundation Model for Forecasting and Anomaly Detection for Wireless Edge Operations	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	APT: Action Expert Pretraining Improves Instruction Generalization of Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Bridging the sim2real gap in the table tennis robot with a transformer-based ball states predictor	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Weak-field waveforms for generic relativistic orbits	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.63	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.11.0	github_release 2025-11-13	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	How many people will attend Manifest 2026?	manifold 2026-06-12	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.63	What will be the unemployment rate at Manifest 2027?	manifold 2026-06-12	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.63	One Polluted Page Is Enough: Evaluating Web Content Pollution in Generative Recommenders	arxiv 2026-06-11	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.63	One Polluted Page Is Enough: Evaluating Web Content Pollution in Generative Recommenders	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	Optimizing Appliance Scheduling for Solar Energy Management Using Metaheuristic Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_059 Global South energy transitions will follow "energy stacking" rather than substitution patterns — households simultaneously use solar panels (primarily for lighting), biomass, LPG, and grid power, reshaping land use and urbanization in peri-urban Afric... Peter Dannenberg	Energy	59%
0.63	Humor Style Drives Laughter, Topic Shapes Acceptability: Evaluating Bilingual Personal and Political Robot-Delivered AI Jokes	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	ARMOR-MAD: Adaptive Routing for Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Debate in Large Language Model Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	PersonaDrive: Human-Style Retrieval-Augmented VLA Agents for Closed-Loop Driving Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	PersonaDrive: Human-Style Retrieval-Augmented VLA Agents for Closed-Loop Driving Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	GF-DiT: Scheduling Parallelism for Diffusion Transformer Serving	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.63	Foundations of Practical Quantum Advantage in Quantum-Informed Machine Learning for Predicting Chaos	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.63	Clipping Makes Distributed and Federated Asynchronous SGD Robust to Stragglers	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Getting Better at Working With You: Compiling User Corrections into Runtime Enforcement for Coding Agents	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.63	Scale Buys Interpolation, Structure Buys a Horizon: Certified Predictability for Equivariant World Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.63	EPM-JEPA: Operator-Side Experience Modulation in JEPA-Family World Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Detecting Functional Memorization in Code Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Viral Proteins Reveal Geometry of Protein Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.63	sebis at CRF Filling 2026: A Two-Stage Local LLM Pipeline for Medical CRF Filling	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.63	Trait, Not State: The Durability of Reading Identity in Social Highlighting	arxiv 2026-06-11	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.63	LoHoSearch: Benchmarking Long-Horizon Search Agents Beyond the Human Difficulty Ceiling	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	facebookresearch/pytorchvideo 0.1.0	github_release 2021-04-13	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	When will Fable be publicly accessible again?	manifold 2026-06-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	When will Fable/Mythos access be restored to Americans?	manifold 2026-06-13	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5)(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Demystifying Variance in Circuit Discovery of LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Beyond Weights and Gradients: A Taxonomy of Federated Learning Messages	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Unified Multimodal Model for Brain MRI Imputation and Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	UXBench: Measuring the Actionability of LLM-Generated UX Critiques	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.63	Know Your Limits : On the Faithfulness of LLMs as Solvers and Autoformalizers in Legal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.63	Scaling Adaptive Depth with Norm-Agnostic Residual Networks	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.63	Do Safety Monitors Stay Reliable After an Update? Benchmarking and Predicting Activation-Monitor Staleness	arxiv 2026-06-14	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	Decoupling Inference from State Updates in Low-Latency Feature Engines via Probabilistic Thinning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Decoupling Inference from State Updates in Low-Latency Feature Engines via Probabilistic Thinning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Maximum Entropy Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Mean-Field Games with Average Reward	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Learning Policy from a Single Trajectory in Average-Reward Markov Decision Process	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	PhysGuard: Fisher-Guided Gradient Projection for Sim-to-Real Neural PDE Surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.63	PhysGuard: Fisher-Guided Gradient Projection for Sim-to-Real Neural PDE Surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	PhysGuard: Fisher-Guided Gradient Projection for Sim-to-Real Neural PDE Surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Tail-Shape Estimation in LLM Evaluation Is Fragile: A Protocol for Diagnosing False Positives	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	Tail-Shape Estimation in LLM Evaluation Is Fragile: A Protocol for Diagnosing False Positives	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Filtered ANN as a Phase Transition: When Selectivity-Estimation Error Causes Plan Regret	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Machine learning enables roughness-driven inverse design of milling processes	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	SciOrch: Learning to Orchestrate Expert LLMs for Solving Frontier Multimodal Scientific Reasoning Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	The Truth Stays in the Family: Enhancing Contextual Grounding via Inherited Truthful Heads in Model Lineages	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	SidewalkBench: Benchmarking Visual Navigation on Urban Sidewalks	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.63	Video-Based Optimal Transport for Feedback-Efficient Offline Preference-Based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Pride and Prejudice: Toward an Information-Theoretic Framework for Mutually Communicative Driver Behavior Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	A Deployment Case Study in Robotic Apparel Automation: Digital Twin Integration, Interoperability, and Workforce Enablement	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.63	Anisotropic Template Ansätze for Robust Positive Invariance under State-Dependent Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	TO-SoFiT: Topology Optimization of Hydraulic Soft Fish Tail Design for programmable undulating locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	S4oP: Operator-level Pruning of Structured State Space Models for Resource-Constrained Devices	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Beyond Domains: Reusing Web Skills via Transferable Interaction Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	LLM Features Can Hurt GNNs: Concatenation Interference on Homophilous Graph Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	ARVO: Atlas of Reproducible Vulnerabilities for Open-Source Software	arxiv 2026-06-15	231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	PowerOPD: Stabilizing On-Policy Distillation with Bounded Power Transformation	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Adaptive Volumetric Mechanical Property Fields Invariant to Resolution	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Multi-Source Cybersecurity Logs: An ATT&CK-Labeled Dataset and SLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_026 Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ... Alex Finn	Defense	77%
0.63	From Drift to Coherence: Stabilizing Beliefs in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Delta-Based Target Reformulation for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using LSTM and Transformer Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	ResAware: Cross-Environment Website Fingerprinting via Resource-Privileged Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Verified Detection and Prevention of Concurrency Anomalies in Multi-Agent Large Language Model Systems	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.63	Toward Accessible Psychotherapy Training Using AI-Driven Interactive Patient Avatars	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	MemSlides: A Hierarchical Memory Driven Agent Framework for Personalized Slide Generation with Multi-turn Local Revision	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	Agent Utilities over Generalized Voronoi Regions and their Gradients	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Intermittent Strategic Cooperation of Two Selfish Agents on Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19?(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will BTC hit $70k in June after market creation?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-17	242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis	AI	45%
0.63	STARE: Surprisal-Guided Token-Level Advantage Reweighting for Policy Entropy Stability	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Forecasting what Matters: Decision-Focused RL for Controlled EV Charging with Unknown Departure Times	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_063 Advancing sustainable, high-capacity battery storage is the only mechanism to capture "negative power prices" (European peak solar/wind oversupply forcing producers to pay to offload) and ensure the economic viability of renewable energy developers. Morgan Stanley	Energy	54%
0.63	Target-confidence Recourse Using tSeTlin machines: TRUST	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	Dual-Channel Grounded World Modeling (DCGWM): Structural Prevention of Objective Interference Collapse via Heterogeneous External Grounding with Inward-Only Gradient Flow	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	MIDS: Detecting Stealthy Masquerade and Tampering Attacks on CAN Bus via Bidirectional Mamba	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	MagpieTTS-LF: Inference-Time Long-Form Speech Generation Without Training on Long-Form data	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	Seeing Before Reasoning: Decoupling Perception and Reasoning for Shortcut-Resilient Multimodal On-Policy Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Adaptive Speech-to-Spike Encoding for Spiking Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Zero-Shot Active Feature Acquisition via LLM-Elicitation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Learning Augmented Exact Exponential Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Learning Augmented Exact Exponential Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	N(CO)$^2$: Neural Combinatorial Optimization with Chance Constraints to Solve Stochastic Orienteering	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Quantum Annealing Enhanced Reinforcement Learning for Accurate Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	PreUnlearn: Auditing Collateral Knowledge Damage Before Large Language Model Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	PreUnlearn: Auditing Collateral Knowledge Damage Before Large Language Model Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	CoreMem: Riemannian Retrieval and Fisher-Guided Distillation for Long-Term Memory in Dialogue Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Automating SKILL.md Generation for Computer-Using Agents via Interaction Trajectory Mining	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.63	Analyzing the Narration Gap in LLM-Solver Loops	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	Hidden Anchors in Multi-Agent LLM Deliberation	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Scaling Generative Foundation Models for Chest Radiography with Rectified Flow Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Entropy Estimation in Multi-Qutrit Systems via Variational and Classical Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Your Mouse and Eyes Secretly Leak Your Preference: LLM Alignment using Implicit Feedback from Users	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	Sparsity, Superposition, and Forgetting: A Mechanistic Study of Representation Retention in Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	What Makes Effective Supervision in Latent Chain-of-Thought: An Information-Theoretic Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	What Makes Effective Supervision in Latent Chain-of-Thought: An Information-Theoretic Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Self-Adaptive Scale Handling for Forecasting Time Series with Scale Heterogeneity	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	Matching Markets meet Cumulative Prospect Theory: Towards Optimal and Adversarially Robust Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	MortarBench: Evaluating Mortgage Loan Origination Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	When Does Streaming Tool Use Help? Characterizing Tool-Intent Stabilization in Streaming Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.63	Generating Robot Hands from Human Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Motor Angular Speed Preintegration for Multirotor UAV State Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-18	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.63	SCAN-Planner: Spatial Collision-Aware Local Planning for Route-Guided Long-Range Quadruped Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	SCAN-Planner: Spatial Collision-Aware Local Planning for Route-Guided Long-Range Quadruped Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-17	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.63	FlexLAM: Resolving the Bottleneck Trade-off in Latent Action Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.63	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.63	Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.63	When will the first prediction market ETF launch?	manifold 2026-04-29	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.63	Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-04-26	236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	50%