Predictions
1,161 of 1,621 predictions match — page 3 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 238_023 | AI | AI-scaling | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in … | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_025 | AI | AI-timing | AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level | Emad Mostaque | 5/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_039 | AI | AI-timing | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_047 | Energy | AI-timing | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 238_061 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_062 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40) | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 238_068 | Macro/Economy | economy | Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-… | Mark Pack Donovan | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 239_002 | AI | AGI | AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 … | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 239_003 | AI | AGI | We are currently in AI hard takeoff | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 239_013 | Robotics | Optimus | Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 240_004 | AI | AI-timing | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_008 | Geopolitics | NVIDIA | NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_010 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 240_016 | AI | AI-scaling | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 240_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_028 | Space | AI-scaling | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 240_029 | AI | AI-scaling | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buil… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 240_032 | AI | AI-timing | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few y… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 240_034 | Energy | AI-timing | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the ne… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_042 | Macro/Economy | economy | Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 240_046 | Media/Ads | AI-timing | Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 240_048 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 240_050 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 241_005 | AI | AI-scaling | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_011 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 241_016 | Energy | AI-timing | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_017 | Energy | AI-timing | Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 241_021 | Markets/Stocks | $100T | America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 241_022 | Macro/Economy | economy | Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 241_031 | AI | AI-timing | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_046 | AI | AI-timing | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_050 | AI | autonomous | AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new sol… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_053 | AI | NVIDIA | AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_061 | Robotics | humanoids | China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (no… | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_062 | AI | AI-timing | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 242_010 | AI | AI-scaling | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new m… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 242_012 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 242_035 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FC… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-05-31 |
| 242_048 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-scaling | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computationa… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 242_049 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 243_032 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-05-31 |
| 243_033 | Labor/Jobs | autonomous | About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annually | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 243_035 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 243_041 | Consumer | AI-timing | Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 243_043 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 243_044 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim) | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 243_045 | Auto/Transport | jobs | Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 244_003 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Regulators will have to decide what a human driver's license looks like | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2051-11-30 |
| 244_023 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacement | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |