Predictions
1,182 of 1,664 predictions match — page 22 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND_028 | Biotech/Longevity | third-bridge-immortality-2030s | Third bridge toward indefinite human lifespans — achieved via synergy of AI a… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 12.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2039-06-30 |
| INF_022 | AI | nanotech-third-bridge | By the 2030s, the 'third bridge' of nanotechnology will enable molecular-leve… | Ray Kurzweil | 3/5 | C | 10.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2045-10-31 |
| INF_051 | Energy | tech-as-utility-inversion | Tech-sector data centers will invert the tech-utility relationship: when oper… | Jensen Huang | 3/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| INF_054 | Energy | synthetic-hydrocarbons-nuclear | Valar HTGR gigasites will chemically store excess energy by synthesizing carb… | Isaiah Taylor | 3/5 | C | 18.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| INF_056 | Energy | OpenAI-Helion-5GW-deal | Helion will supply OpenAI with 5 gigawatts of fusion electricity by 2030 (rou… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 15.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| INF_072 | AI | AGI-scaling-50-50 | There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodolog… | Demis Hassabis | 3/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2042-09-30 |
| ROB_010 | Robotics | watts-are-wealth | 'Watts are wealth' — as machines progressively take over physical production,… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 48.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| SPC_023 | AI | Altman-roadmap-2030-2036 | Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence … | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 18.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 230_007 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment a… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_013 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_021 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_023 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_030 | Macro/Economy | economy | Economy will shift from paying for inputs/hours to paying for verified outcomes. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_037 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_039 | Education | AI-timing | Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; e… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_043 | Crypto | crypto | The economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobst… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_045 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_047 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of t… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_049 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust tr… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_022 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_032 | Space | orbital-AI | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_040 | Macro/Economy | economy | Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_042 | Labor/Jobs | economy | Job loss from AI will take a long while to play out - not a sudden shock to t… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 232_045 | Energy | SpaceX | Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 233_002 | Education | AI-timing | Colleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tu… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 233_011 | Education | AI-timing | Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatica… | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 233_019 | Education | AI-timing | Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized cont… | Joe Liemandt | 3/5 | D | 40.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 235_045 | Consumer | AI-timing | Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 241_001 | AI | AI-timing | We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 241_029 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 241_058 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | High-skilled mechanical labor will be one of the last things to go in automation | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_018 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| 231_033 | Space | AI-timing | Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2033-11-30 |
| 231_038 | AI | AI-scaling | TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2033-08-31 |
| 235_018 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 239_027 | Macro/Economy | economy | Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 242_047 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 246_010 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 246_041 | Energy | AI-timing | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 246_042 | AI | AI-timing | On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans livi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2036-08-31 |
| 246_046 | Real Estate | AI-timing | Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 247_044 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments | Mark Cuban | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2036-08-31 |
| AI_034 | Education | global-adoption-tablets | The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5… | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-05-31 |
| CMQ_006 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-science | Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and A… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2036-09-30 |
| 232_057 | Robotics | AI-scaling | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; rob… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2031-06-01 – 2031-06-30 |
| 232_059 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2031-06-01 – 2031-06-30 |
| 238_058 | Macro/Economy | abundance | Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/mon… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2032-01-01 – 2033-12-31 |
| SEM_034 | AI/AGI | AGI | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 —… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2032-01-01 – 2042-12-31 |
| 235_030 | Biotech/Longevity | AGI | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Ray Kurzweil | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | pending | 2033-01-01 – 2033-09-30 |
| INF_061 | Auto/Transport | 1000-mile-EV-range | Within approximately 10 years, battery chemistry and pack architecture advanc… | CATL | 3/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2033-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |