Predictions
231 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 5. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INF_008 | AI | IQ-growth-rate | Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | partial | 2024-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| CMQ_031 | AI/Compute | post-Moore | AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 70.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| CMQ_062 | Quantum | quantum-interference | Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasin… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| IND_003 | Biotech/Longevity | NICU-4-hour-genomic-sequencing | Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborn… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | C | 75.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_009 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2025-12-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| 230_001 | AI | AI-timing | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with huma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 230_004 | AI | AI-scaling | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rew… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 230_015 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 230_027 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weap… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 230_028 | AI | AI-timing | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from s… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 230_029 | AI | AI-timing | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| 230_031 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across ma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 230_033 | AI | orbital-AI | Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2033-10-31 |
| 231_019 | Other | AI-timing | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in n… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 231_037 | Space | SpaceX | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 231_046 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plot… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 231_047 | AI | AI-timing | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 232_014 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 232_060 | AI | AI-scaling | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicat… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_006 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-09-30 |
| 234_018 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_026 | AI | AI-timing | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_041 | Other | AI-timing | 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 235_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | miss | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 238_039 | AI | AI-timing | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_004 | AI | AI-timing | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_008 | Geopolitics | NVIDIA | NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_032 | AI | AI-timing | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few y… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 240_046 | Media/Ads | AI-timing | Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 242_048 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-scaling | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computationa… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 246_021 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 246_030 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_048 | Energy | AI-timing | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_057 | AI | AI-scaling | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 248_001 | Space | SpaceX | Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual sate… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 248_026 | Other | AI-timing | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 248_031 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajector… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AI_016 | AI | AI-experience-curve-vs-Moore | The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AUT_002 | AI | unified-mathematical-substrate | Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unif… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| CMQ_032 | Macro/Economy | cost-of-intelligence | Exponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bott… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| CMQ_063 | Quantum/AI | quantum-AI-integration | Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-scie… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| CYB_022 | AI | LiteLLM-supply-chain-vulnerability | Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exem… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| IND_023 | Robotics | bipedal-robotics-municipal-utility | 'Cambrian explosion of bipedal labor' driven by hundreds of robotics companie… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | C | 48.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| INF_009 | AI | organoid-computing | The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| SEM_031 | Semis/Hardware | hardware | AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_032 | AI/Mathematics | AI-scaling | 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Pr… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | A | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_033 | AI/Physics | AI-scaling | AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics researc… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| SEM_049 | AI/Software | jobs | AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost redu… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |