Predictions
94 of 1,607 predictions match — page 2 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 242_050 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 243_030 | Robotics | humanoids | Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane r… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_039 | Robotics | AI-timing | Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, Manna | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 244_010 | Robotics | autonomous | Machines will be more predictable than human drivers with higher acceptance r… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| COD_ROB_002 | Robotics | consumer-humanoid | 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 229_006 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 229_015 | Robotics | AI-timing | The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 229_030 | Robotics | humanoids | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 229_034 | Robotics | humanoids | Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_025 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_027 | Robotics | humanoids | China will win low-end robotic hardware race | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_056 | Robotics | humanoids | Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_020 | Robotics | humanoids | Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs ne… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_038 | Robotics | humanoids | We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_042 | Robotics | humanoids | A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 238_015 | Robotics | humanoids | Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) | Brent Bornick | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31 |
| 239_011 | Robotics | Optimus | Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31 |
| 229_021 | Robotics | humanoids | In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iter… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 229_023 | Robotics | humanoids | First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 238_016 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| ROB_005 | Robotics | physical-intelligence-AGI-prerequisite | True AGI requires 'physical intelligence' — an AGI system must be able to con… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 235_019 | Robotics | humanoids | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 241_057 | Robotics | AGI | Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminent | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 239_012 | Robotics | Optimus | Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-07-01 – 2027-07-31 |
| 229_009 | Robotics | humanoids | Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 229_025 | Robotics | AI-timing | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two yea… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 230_022 | Robotics | AGI | Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 235_020 | Robotics | humanoids | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 247_043 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 235_032 | Robotics | Optimus | Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2032-08-31 |
| 236_021 | Robotics | Optimus | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2034-11-30 |
| INF_025 | Robotics | humanoid-deployment | Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 20… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | A | 40.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-09-30 |
| ROB_010 | Robotics | watts-are-wealth | 'Watts are wealth' — as machines progressively take over physical production,… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 48.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| 230_007 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment a… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_021 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 241_029 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 247_044 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments | Mark Cuban | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2036-08-31 |
| 232_057 | Robotics | AI-scaling | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; rob… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2031-06-01 – 2031-06-30 |
| 229_010 | Robotics | humanoids | Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one pe… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2040-10-31 |
| AI_030 | Robotics | humanoids-outnumber-workers-2035 | By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 236_019 | Robotics | AI-timing | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| CMQ_051 | Robotics | humanoid-TAM | Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units… | Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla | 5/5 | A | 40.0% | pending | 2040-01-01 – 2040-09-30 |
| 234_033 | Robotics | humanoids | David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months | David Holz | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2045-01-01 – 2045-09-30 |
| ROB_008 | Robotics | humanoid-5T-1B-2050 | Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive se… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 48.0% | in_progress | 2050-01-01 – 2050-09-30 |