Predictions
52 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 230_046 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dr… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 231_014 | AI | AI-scaling | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 232_015 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 233_005 | AI | AI-scaling | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 234_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 235_005 | AI | AI-scaling | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 235_006 | AI | AI-scaling | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 236_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 238_023 | AI | AI-scaling | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in … | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_016 | AI | AI-scaling | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 240_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_029 | AI | AI-scaling | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buil… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 240_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the ne… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 242_010 | AI | AI-scaling | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new m… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 246_052 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_009 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 247_028 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 248_011 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon th… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 238_030 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisions | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_020 | AI | AI-scaling | New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next A… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_046 | AI | AI-scaling | Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_052 | AI | AI-scaling | Cost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-drivi… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_044 | AI | AI-scaling | Two outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel fo… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_053 | AI | AI-scaling | ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-08-31 |
| 246_055 | AI | AI-scaling | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad h… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 231_026 | AI | AI-scaling | Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_045 | AI | AI-scaling | Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_046 | AI | AI-scaling | AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_029 | AI | AI-scaling | AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentall… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_003 | AI | AI-scaling | NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 242_042 | AI | AI-scaling | Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_024 | AI | AI-scaling | Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after i… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_010 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_012 | AI | AI-scaling | AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-report… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_013 | AI | AI-scaling | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_023 | AI | AI-scaling | Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_010 | AI | AI-scaling | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31 |
| 242_011 | AI | AI-scaling | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, man… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2033-09-30 |
| 246_011 | AI | AI-scaling | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 247_060 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed … | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 248_006 | AI | AI-scaling | The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 230_005 | AI | AI-scaling | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withhe… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 248_016 | AI | AI-scaling | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of y… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 248_033 | AI | AI-scaling | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 231_024 | AI | AI-scaling | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in th… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for build… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |