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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	MINCE: Shrinking LLM Evaluation Datasets via Few-Model Monte Carlo Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	The Origins of Stochasticity: Comprehensive Investigations on Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	GeoRouteNet: Geometry-Enhanced Non-Autoregressive Neural Solver for the Traveling Salesman Problem	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	GeoRouteNet: Geometry-Enhanced Non-Autoregressive Neural Solver for the Traveling Salesman Problem	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Subspace-Constrained Federated Learning with Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-21	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Orthogonal Representation Editing: Decoupling Semantic Entanglement in Batch Knowledge Editing of LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	The Power of Light: Improving Synthetic-to-Real Domain Adaptation through Physically-Based Indirect Illumination	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	The Power of Light: Improving Synthetic-to-Real Domain Adaptation through Physically-Based Indirect Illumination	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Fed-CausalDiff: Decoupled Synchronization for Federated Do-Simulation and Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Quantifying the Agreement Between Data-Influence and Data-Similarity to Understand LLM Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	SuperCond-GNN: Scalable Graph Neural Network Surrogate for Superconducting Circuit Simulations	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	Quantum Convolutional Neural Networks for Groundwater Heat Plume Prediction: A Surrogate Modeling Approach	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	Neural Parameter Calibration for Finite-State Mean Field Games	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	EEG Benchmarking Needs a Task Specification Layer: NeuroDoc for Rulebook-Guided, Executable Benchmark Construction	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.63	Towards Robust Personalized Federated Learning: Vulnerability Assessment and Defense Co-Design	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Target-Aware Linear Regression Under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Judgment-Grounded Expansion for Peer Review Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.63	SingGuard: A Policy-Adaptive Multimodal LLM Guardrail with Dynamic Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Does the Same Token Mean the Same State? MoE Routing as Signal for Reasoning Control	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	A Watermark for Vision-Language-Action and World Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.63	Semantic-Aware Autonomous Exploration for UAVs in Unknown Indoor Environments	arxiv 2026-06-21	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.63	Line Drawings using LightBenders: Authoring and Illuminating	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	FDA ANDA211586: BUPRENORPHINE (BUPRENORPHINE) — AMNEAL	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will NATO cease to exist before 2030?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-24	S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031	ai_regulatory_pause	75%
0.63	Will Zohran Mamdani make an endorsement for president before 2028?	manifold 2026-06-24	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.63	Will Adriano Espaillat run in the 2026 NY13 general election as an independent or third party candidate?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-24	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.63	Assessing Distribution Shift in Human Activity Recognition for Domain Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	SP-Mind: An Autonomous Reasoning Agent for Spatial Proteomics Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-23	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	33%
0.63	FlowR2A: Learning Reward-to-Action Distribution for Multimodal Driving Planning	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Data Scale, Not Latency, Shapes Cross-Lingual Encoder Transfer in Streaming ASR	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	VeryTrace: Verifying Reasoning Traces through Compilable Formalism and Structured Verification	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Selective Capability Unlearning in End-to-End Spoken Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Model selection with proper scoring rules on data sets of time series	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque	AI	74%
0.63	An LLM-based Two-Stage Transformer Framework for Cross-Domain Bearing Fault Diagnosis with Limited Data	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	An Agnostic Machine Learning Model of Photosynthetic Habitability	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Cyclic Denoising Reveals Ultrastable Memories in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	One Ruler: A Same-Hands Re-Evaluation of Bivariate Causal Direction on Tuebingen, with a Parameter-Free Compression Baseline	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	The Warrant Gap: Claim-Conditioned Re-scoring for Fact-Checking	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	ComputeFHE: A Privacy-Preserving General-Purpose Computation Library	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	Non-Standard Interactions and Light Z' Bosons from CEvNS Data at CONUS+: A Statistical Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-22	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	FDA NDA007337: PERCODAN (ASPIRIN) — ENDO OPERATIONS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	Will Solana dip to $30 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.63	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.63	will this market have 50 or more unique traders by july 5(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.63	TriViewBench: Controlled Complexity Scaling for Multi-View Structural Reasoning in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-24	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Multi-Agent Goal Recognition with Team- and Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning and Factorized Branch-and-Bound	arxiv 2026-06-24	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.63	Edges Before Embeddings: A Confidence-Aware Blur Gate for Vision-Language Pipelines	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Edges Before Embeddings: A Confidence-Aware Blur Gate for Vision-Language Pipelines	arxiv 2026-06-24	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Gradient-based inverse lithography for EUV masks via the waveguide method and a physics-informed neural operator	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	TL++: Accuracy and Privacy Preserving Traversal Learning for Distributed Intelligent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Reclaim Evaluation: A Lossy Memory Is Worse Than an Empty One	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	Interpretable Concept-Guided Polynomial Tabular Kolmogorov-Arnold Network for EEG-Based Mild Cognitive Impairment Detection	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Brevity is the Soul of Inference Efficiency: Inducing Concision in VLMs via Data Curation	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	Adaptive Oscillatory Inductive Bias for Modeling Sharp Prosodic Dynamics in Diffusion-Based TTS	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	Physics Question Scene Graph: Fine-grained Evaluation of Physical Plausibility in Text-to-Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Uncertainty-aware reinforcement learning for chemical language models	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Taxonomy-aware deep learning for hierarchical marine species classification in underwater imagery	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.63	Neural operator-based digital twins for modeling amyloid-$β$ and tau propagation and treatment optimization in Alzheimer's disease	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.63	Laplace--Fisher Gate Identities for Optimal Matrix-Gated Blended Score Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	A Single Stepsize Suffices for Unprojected Linear TD(0): Simultaneous Robust and Fast Rates via Polyak--Ruppert Averaging	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Training Dynamics of Neural Software Defect Predictors under Coupled Data-Quality Issues	arxiv 2026-06-23	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.63	Enhancing Clinician Decision-Making via Uncertainty-Aware Multi-Expert Fusion for Stroke Rehabilitation	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	When Certainty Is an Artifact: Keyword Lexicon Blindness and the (Mis)Measurement of Rhetorical Stance	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	A Survey of Toxicity Detection and Mitigation Strategies for Multilingual Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Story Operators: Decomposing the Original $\to$ Sequel Transformation in Embedding Space	arxiv 2026-06-24	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	G2DP: Diffusion Planning with Spatio-Temporal Grid Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Large-Scale Tunnel Air--Ground Collaboration With FLISP: Fast LiDAR-IMU Synchronized Path Planne	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Self Capacitive Tactile Sensor System designed for Companion Robots	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Reflective VLA: In-Context Action Consequences Make VLAs Generalize	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	RigPI: Dynamic Parameter Identification of Rigid Body via VLM-Seeded Differentiable Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Invariant Kalman filtering for extended pose estimation in multi-IMU articulated rigid-body systems	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	FDA ANDA209655: FENTANYL-100 (FENTANYL) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Will there be found a language whose phonology is provably outside IOTSL level of subregular complexity, by EOY 2030?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-26	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Will JasonMendoza2008 manage to make 1000 profit solely market making before the end of 2026?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-25	246_003 Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	37%
0.63	Decision-Aligned Evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Chai: Agentic Discovery of Cryptographic Misuse Vulnerabilities	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	Beyond Logical Forms: LLM-Extracted Patterns for Fallacy Classification	arxiv 2026-06-25	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	SharQ: Bridging Activation Sparsity and FP4 Quantization for LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.63	scBench-Long: Verifiable Benchmarking of Long-Horizon Single-Cell Biology	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	VoiceTTA: Enhancing Zero-Shot Text-to-Speech via Reinforcement Learning-Based Test-Time Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Multipath Adaptive Gated Bottleneck Latent ODE with Raman Data Fusion for Cell Culture Process Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.63	DanceOPD: On-Policy Generative Field Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	When are likely answers right? On Sequence Probability and Correctness in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Symplectic Neural Networks for learning Generalized Hamiltonians	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Reproducibility Study of "AlphaEdit: Null-Space Constrained Knowledge Editing for Language Models"	arxiv 2026-06-25	245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	80%
0.63	Generating Special Triangulations with Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.63	Finding the Time to Think: Learning Planning Budgets in Real-Time RL	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Otter Weather: Skillful and Computationally Efficient Medium-Range Weather Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-24	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.63	Topology-Informed Neural Networks for Flood Detection in Optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar Imagery	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Adversarial Diffusion Across Modalities: A Fusion Survey of Attacks, Defenses, and Evaluation for Text, Vision, and Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	Adversarial Diffusion Across Modalities: A Fusion Survey of Attacks, Defenses, and Evaluation for Text, Vision, and Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	PAMAE: Phase-Aware-MoE Action Experts Towards Reliable Flow-Matching Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%