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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.64	DeformGen: Dynamics-Based Topology Augmentation for Deformable Manipulation Policy Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	1000 Rallies: An Event-Camera Dataset and Real-Time Learned Ball-State Estimation for Robotic Table Tennis	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Delta-Position Estimation-Based IMU Odometry: A Comparison of MLP and Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.64	SpaceX pivots away from xAI(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-26	246_008 Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	62%
0.64	Error-Conditioned Neural Solvers	arxiv 2026-06-25	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Prompt Injection in Automated Résumé Screening with Large Language Models: Single and Multi-Injection Settings	arxiv 2026-06-25	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.64	ShareLock: A Stealthy Multi-Tool Threshold Poisoning Attack Against MCP	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	Where Do Models Find Happiness? Emotion Vectors in Open-Source LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Auditing Framing-Sensitive Behavioral Instability in Large Language Models for Mental Health Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Information-Aware KV Cache Compression for Long Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Context-Aware Synthesis of Optimization Pipelines for Warehouse Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Do Safety Guardrails Need to Reason? LeanGuard: A Fast and Light Approach for Robust Moderation	arxiv 2026-06-25	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	Do Safety Guardrails Need to Reason? LeanGuard: A Fast and Light Approach for Robust Moderation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.64	Autoformalization of Agent Instructions into Policy-as-Code	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.64	Multipath Adaptive Gated Bottleneck Latent ODE with Raman Data Fusion for Cell Culture Process Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	From Clicks to Intent: Cross-Platform Session Embeddings with LLM-Distilled Taxonomy for Financial Services Recommendations	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.64	Accelerating Skill Assessment in Chess: A Drift-Diffusion-Enhanced Elo Rating System	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	HyperDFlash: MHC-Aligned Block Speculative Decoding with Gated Residual Reduction	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.64	Otter Weather: Skillful and Computationally Efficient Medium-Range Weather Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Does Aurora Encode Atmospheric Structure? Latent Regime Analysis and Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Clue-Guided Money Laundering Group Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Cascaded Multi-Granularity Pruning for On-Device LLM Inference in Industrial IoT	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.64	OPID: On-Policy Skill Distillation for Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	RouterVLA: Turning Smoke Tests into Supervision for Heterogeneous VLA Selection	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	HumanoidUMI: Bridging Robot-Free Demonstrations and Humanoid Whole-Body Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_025 Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.64	PlanRL: A Trajectory Planning Architecture for Reinforcement Learning-based Driving Experts	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Hardware Design for Table Tennis Robot Capable of Beating Professional Players	arxiv 2026-06-25	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.64	PRISM: Efficient and Locally Optimal Probabilistic Planning with Reachability Guarantees	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Exploring the Intrinsic Geometry of Diffusion Models with Constrained Inverse Kinematics	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	RigPI: Dynamic Parameter Identification of Rigid Body via VLM-Seeded Differentiable Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	CHESS: CHEbyshev pSeudo-Spectral transport for Feynman integral differential equations	arxiv 2026-06-25	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	Unitarity Cuts, t-channel Divergences and the KLN Theorem for Unstable Particles	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	When will Earth-originating life become Kardashev 1.3 total or higher?	manifold 2026-06-27	SPC_026 Humanity becoming a truly multiplanetary species is strictly an era BEYOND the singularity (post-2045) — Kurzweil asserts only after humanity has 'exhausted the ability of here on Earth to create more intelligence' will the focus shift definitively to ... Ray Kurzweil	Space	46%
0.64	facebookresearch/momentum v0.1.111	github_release 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 30?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Bitcoin price on July 5?	manifold 2026-06-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	ENC-ODE: Event-level Neurodegenerative Modeling in Continuous Time with Neural ODEs	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Model Predictive Current Control with Harmonic Correction for Single-Phase AC-DC EV Charging	arxiv 2026-06-29	FUT_013 Exponential scaling of modular battery swapping infrastructure (Ample), mass production of clean-energy lithium-ion batteries (Northvolt), and low-GHG shipping + massive high-voltage ultra-long-distance transmission grids become economically viable pur... Ramez Naam	Auto/Transport	44%
0.64	Inoculation Adapters: Improved Selective Generalization of Capabilities with Fewer Surprising Backdoors	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Be Faithful When Response: Returning Fluent and Grounded Answers for Vision-Language Models Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Latent-CURE for Breast Cancer Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.64	SafePyramid: A Hierarchical Benchmark for In-context Policy Guardrailing	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	LWDrive: Layer-Wise World-Model-Guided Vision-Language Model Planning for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	How Far Can You Get Without a GPU? A Systematic Benchmark of Lightweight Hallucination Detection Across Question Answering, Dialogue, and Summarisation	arxiv 2026-06-29	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	Diagnosing and Mitigating Context Rot in Long-horizon Search	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	$μ$Flow: Leveraging Average Images for Improving Generalisation of Deepfake Faces Detectors	arxiv 2026-06-29	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Internal-State Probes Read the Situation, Not the Action: Three Negative Results for Pre-Action Misalignment Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	FlowAWR: Online Adaptive Flow Reinforcement via Advantage-Weighted Rectification	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.64	B3O: Scalable Boltzmann Batch Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-29	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.64	Boundary Degree as a Node-level Feature for Epidemic Scenario Identification in Agent-based Cascade Simulations	arxiv 2026-06-28	232_044 There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Speculative Pre-Positioning: Decoding Stateful Sessions to the Next Decision Point Off the Critical Path	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Do Models Read What They Write? Causal Registers in Scratchpad Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-28	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.64	Adaptive Financial Transformer with Regime-Gated Attention for Stock Return Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.64	Sample Complexity of Scientific Discovery: PAC Learnability of Compositional Function Trees	arxiv 2026-06-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Smooth Scaling Laws Hide Stepwise Token Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	MIThinker: A Plug-and-Play Policy-Optimized Thinker For Motivational Interviewing Counseling	arxiv 2026-06-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	STEAM: Self-Supervised Temporal Ensemble Advantage Modeling for Real-World Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Lateral String Stability for Vehicle Platoons	arxiv 2026-06-29	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.64	Analyzing Uncertainty in the Spatial Representation of the Kinematic Bicycle Model	arxiv 2026-06-28	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	LAMP: Long-Horizon Adaptive Manipulation Planning for Multi-Robot Collaboration in Cluttered Space	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	MoPe: Motion Permanence for Robust Monocular Gaussian Mapping in Dynamic Environments	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Behavior Uncloning: Distilling Mode Redirection into Policy Weights without Inference-Time Steering	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-08-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.63	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.63	Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.63	Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 on any day between April 29 and July 31, 2026?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-04-29	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.63	What will be the sum of 2026 USAMO MOHS	manifold 2026-04-24	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.63	Will I get a girlfriend in the year 2026(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-23	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.63	Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63		gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_019 Aerospace-sector manufacturing base is being aggressively reoriented away from China — reflecting a new 'metageography of development' where national actors secure critical aerospace supply chains (tungsten, copper, rare earths) via political borders a... Peter Dannenberg	Geopolitics	72%
0.63	boersengang voraus angriff auf nvidia aktie ki spezialist cerebras wagt neuen ipo anlauf an der nasdaq 00 15640811	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.63	17000538	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.63	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 1?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.63	Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.63	Will US average gas price reach … in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.63	Sp500 closes below 7,000 or above 7,500 next?	manifold 2026-05-01	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.63	Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis	Energy	53%
0.63	Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.63	FDA ANDA090170: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — UNICHEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	openai/openai-python v2.21.0	github_release 2026-02-14	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%