Validations Queue

92,897 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 230 of 235, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-09
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-09
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
238_072
Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days
Emad Mostaque
AI74%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-01
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-06
231_025
Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-20
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-15
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
CMQ_027
The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+).
Jensen Huang
AI/Compute92%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-17
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-17
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-23
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2025-11-14
236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics41%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-23
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-22
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-23
238_028
Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)
Emad Mostaque
Markets/Stocks31%
0.55polymarket
2025-12-04
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
238_020
Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI61%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-22
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
229_001
Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
Brett Adcock
Robotics39%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-03-09
247_002
Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-03-26
CMQ_018
By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Geopolitics35%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-23
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.55polymarket
2025-07-03
246_030
DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks34%
0.55polymarket
2025-06-19
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-08
237_025
We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected.
Peter Diamandis
AI59%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-08
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-17
242_026
Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport38%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-26
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-24
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-24
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55
Pistons vs. Magic(market prob: 61%)
polymarket
2026-04-25
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-25
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-25
236_025
Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes
Andrew Yang
Real Estate42%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-01
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-26
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-17
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks41%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
SEM_003
Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Energy/Compute86%
0.55polymarket
2025-07-10
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
238_020
Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI61%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55
Timberwolves vs. Spurs(market prob: 23%)
polymarket
2026-05-01
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2025-11-17
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-04
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-04
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-05
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-05
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-30
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.55
Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-30
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-07
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-18
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-07
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-30
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%