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86,658 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 180 of 183, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals go to a Game 7?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-19 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-19 | ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk | Robotics | 18% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 235_043 Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. Salim Ismail | Defense | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Will I stay in Masters this season?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I be below 265 pounds by January 11, 2027? (Today: 318.8 pounds)(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Free Lottery (tip of the red-giant branch)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 239_011 Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 Elon Musk | Robotics | 19% | |
| 0.55 | Will Scotland finish in the top 2 of their World Cup group?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | Will someone managram me 1k mana(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals go to a Game 7?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-21 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | Keir Starmer out before July? (Tumbles Judgement)(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. Peter Diamandis | Space | 38% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-24 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | Over 1.5 red cards issued for mouth covering at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-28 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | INF_046 Governments worldwide will increasingly prioritize absolute energy independence, pursuing self-sufficiency in critical materials and domestic manufacturing capacity to support Sovereign AI initiatives — extending beyond G7 to mid-sized nations (Estonia... Morgan Stanley | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | Bayern vs PSG, Champions League Semi Final Leg 2 6th May of 2026(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% |