Validations Queue

83,930 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 170 of 219, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.57polymarket
2026-06-10
ROB_008
Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m...
Morgan Stanley
Robotics37%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-10
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics41%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-20
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics41%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-19
233_007
In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform.
Joe Liemandt
Education51%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-04
229_026
By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.
Brett Adcock
Robotics38%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-23
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-27
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5(market prob: 35%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-12
241_011
By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill
Peter Diamandis
Labor/Jobs47%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
FUT_019
Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-08
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
246_014
Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space41%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
FUT_022
Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy72%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-23
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
246_054
Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space37%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
FUT_017
Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc...
Gerd Leonhard
Media/Ads50%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
236_003
Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs49%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-10
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.57
Utah vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%)
polymarket
2026-04-28
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
242_019
EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport50%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
236_013
Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics50%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
237_010
In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.
Alex Finn
Crypto43%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-04-29
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57
Lightning vs. Canadiens(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-04-29
231_025
Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-16
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-16
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57
Magic vs. Pistons(market prob: 27%)
polymarket
2026-04-27
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-26
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-17
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-05
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
234_004
Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-16
231_019
Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Other39%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
238_033
Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks35%
0.57
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)(market prob: 54%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57
76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 21%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-06
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.57
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics42%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-14
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
INF_039
Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v...
Alex Finn
Consumer77%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
SPC_009
Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
SPC_009
Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-04
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%