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83,930 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 162 of 179, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | Will anything be done about the market spam and referral fraud?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Lionel Messi get another hat trick at the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-19 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get the Manifold Hat (Merch) By EOY?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 242_008 Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed Dave Blundin | Energy | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Will Slovakia win the ice hockey world championship 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 236_014 Publicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quickly Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 237_014 Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. Unnamed friend (accountant manager) | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_004 Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.56 | Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | Do you like 96% odds?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 237_014 Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. Unnamed friend (accountant manager) | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. Ray Kurzweil | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 232_040 Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. Nick Bostrom | AI | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I present my APUSH project before the end of the school year?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 231_014 Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.56 | Trailer for Star Fox movie or tv show before 2029?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (KM3NeT)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt | Education | 51% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% |