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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | US military draft authorized in 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-03-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-03 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Massimo Giunta(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.57 | Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Sabres vs. Bruins(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Raptors vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.57 | Games Total: O/U 3.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | 76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-10.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-14.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | |
| 0.57 | UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-02-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-11-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | ROB_011 An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. Elon Musk | Space | 11% | |
| 0.57 | Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: HOTU vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2025-11-28 | 239_021 Money will stop being relevant at some point Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump Insult Xi this week?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump Insult Xi this week?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump Leave China on May 15?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% |