Validations Queue

80,311 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 130 of 214, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-01
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-01
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-01
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-19
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-19
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-16
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-08
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-28
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-01
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.58
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-22
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.58
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-05
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-02
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-02
SEM_003
Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Energy/Compute86%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-05
S_MARS_2028
Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)
mars_uncrewed_landing50%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-10
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-07
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-26
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-04
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58
O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-04-18
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-12
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2025-05-02
231_015
Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-04
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-08
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-10
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-13
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58
Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-05-10
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics41%
0.58
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-05-12
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-26
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-22
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-13
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-04
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-23
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-24
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-15
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-09
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-14
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-03
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-16
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58
Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-05-15
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-05
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-17
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-19
242_036
Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks42%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-18
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2025-10-22
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-18
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-23
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-14
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-20
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-20
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-28
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-31
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-31
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-31
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58
Monaco vs. Nanterre(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-05-30
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Monaco vs. Nanterre(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-05-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-08
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-19
S_COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE
Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029
compute_scale15%
0.58
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 48%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-01
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%