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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2025-12-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2025-12-10 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.61 | Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.61 | Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.61 | Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.61 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.61 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 237_012 Over the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth. Alex Finn | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.61 | Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.61 | Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.61 | Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2025-07-24 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.61 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.61 | Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.61 | LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.61 | Xi Jinping out by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.61 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.61 | Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.61 | LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.61 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-19 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.61 | Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.61 | Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.61 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.61 | Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.61 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.61 | Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.61 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.61 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Will NRG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.61 | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2025-09-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.61 | Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.61 | Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.61 | Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.61 | Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-01-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.61 | Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will FC Universitario win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.61 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% |