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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Shymkent 2: Sergey Fomin vs Max Hans Rehberg(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Shymkent 2: Sergey Fomin vs Max Hans Rehberg(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Iran leadership change by December 31?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Netanyahu out by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will France win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Forsaken vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 21% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Luca Nardi(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-03-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Knicks vs. 76ers(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will the fight be won by submission?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-10.5)(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 34% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 22% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-30 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-5.5)(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Ebola case in the US by June 30?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% |