Predictions
1,161 of 1,621 predictions match — page 6 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEM_007 | AI/Strategy | $100T | Altman strategy: capture 90% of global compute/AI market — treat compute infr… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| SEM_009 | Economy | $100T | The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first … | Mark Cuban | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| SEM_010 | Macro/Economy | $100T | AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 … | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 8.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| SEM_016 | Semis/Geopolitics | hardware | Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via im… | David Friedberg | 3/5 | C | 30.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_023 | Semis/Markets | NVIDIA | No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 w… | Joseph Moore | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| SEM_025 | Capital Markets | NVIDIA | Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from cu… | Joseph Moore | 5/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_030 | Capital Markets | economy | S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling thr… | Mike Wilson | 4/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_032 | AI/Mathematics | AI-scaling | 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Pr… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | A | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_035 | AI/Cognition | AI-scaling | World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~ea… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| SEM_044 | Space | SpaceX | Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating l… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| SPC_002 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX-valuation-target | A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trill… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| SPC_020 | Auto/Transport | Archer-Midnight-commercial-2026 | Archer Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger fl… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 38.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| SPC_029 | Labor/Jobs | Idea-Guys-imagination-scarcity | 'Idea Guys' vindication — because AI handles rote execution of complex engine… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 229_033 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting t… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-02-01 – 2026-02-28 |
| 235_016 | Space | SpaceX | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Peter Diamandis | 2/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| COD_ROB_001 | Robotics | humanoid-production | Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at lea… | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-29 – 2026-12-31 |
| 229_005 | Robotics | humanoids | The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 p… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_011 | Markets/Stocks | economy | The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly hal… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_012 | Robotics | humanoids | Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_014 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expan… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_016 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundre… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_017 | Robotics | humanoids | Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit. | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_018 | Robotics | humanoids | In the future, everything that moves (besides humans) will be a robot. | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_019 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_024 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,0… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_029 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_031 | Robotics | humanoids | At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_035 | Space | humanoids | Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of spac… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_036 | Space | AI-scaling | Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_038 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robo… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_039 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into f… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_040 | Robotics | AI-scaling | When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millim… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_041 | Other | humanoids | Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 20… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_042 | AI | AI-scaling | Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, ac… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_044 | AI | humanoids | Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_045 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoi… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_046 | Robotics | humanoids | Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-09-30 |
| 234_001 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 234_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_007 | AI | AI-timing | Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI | Kevin Weil | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_008 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 234_009 | Defense | AI-timing | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 234_011 | Defense | AI-timing | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-12-31 |
| 234_016 | AI | $100T | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_022 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 234_023 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | 80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappear | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 234_024 | Labor/Jobs | AGI | Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a re… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 234_028 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Lab grown meat will replace conventional meat as the healthier environmental … | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 234_029 | Space | orbital-AI | Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_030 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Auto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-driving | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |