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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.64	Seeing Realism from Simulation: Efficient Video Transfer for Vision-Language-Action Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Latent Bridge: Feature Delta Prediction for Efficient Dual-System Vision-Language-Action Model Inference	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	FDA ANDA211535: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — CIPLA	fda 2026-04-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA219593: PREGABALIN (PREGABALIN) — UNICHEM	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA212963: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — EUGIA PHARMA	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.64	When Relations Break: Analyzing Relation Hallucination in Vision-Language Model Under Rotation and Noise	arxiv 2026-05-06	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.64	Elicitation Matters: How Prompts and Query Protocols Shape LLM Surrogates under Sparse Observations	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Not All That Is Fluent Is Factual: Investigating Hallucinations of Large Language Models in Academic Writing	arxiv 2026-05-05	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.1	github_release 2021-06-30	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	facebookresearch/faiss v1.12.0	github_release 2025-08-12	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.64	facebookresearch/faiss v1.8.0	github_release 2024-03-01	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.64	facebookresearch/faiss v1.4.0	github_release 2018-08-31	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.25	github_release 2024-03-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.22.post7	github_release 2023-10-25	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.64	Superintelligent Retrieval Agent: The Next Frontier of Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Can RL Teach Long-Horizon Reasoning to LLMs? Expressiveness Is Key	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	NeuroAgent: LLM Agents for Multimodal Neuroimaging Analysis and Research	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	SCRuB: Social Concept Reasoning under Rubric-Based Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Topological Signatures of Grokking	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	EA-WM: Event-Aware Generative World Model with Structured Kinematic-to-Visual Action Fields	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Rethinking Adapter Placement: A Dominant Adaptation Module Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.64	BehaviorGuard: Online Backdoor Defense for Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	HaM-World: Soft-Hamiltonian World Models with Selective Memory for Planning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	ICU-Bench:Benchmarking Continual Unlearning in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Which Are the Low-Resource Languages of the Semantic Web?	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Wisteria: A Unified Multi-Scale Feature Learning Framework for DNA Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	BRICKS: Compositional Neural Markov Kernels for Zero-Shot Radiation-Matter Simulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_053 Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical High-Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGR) on a single remote heavily-regulated site — will emerge as the dominant deployment architecture for advanced fission, superseding scattered S... Isaiah Taylor	Energy	28%
0.64	Invariant Features in Language Models: Geometric Characterization and Model Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	PACE: Prune-And-Compress Ensemble Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	DiBA: Diagonal and Binary Matrix Approximation for Neural Network Weight Compression	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	MemReranker: Reasoning-Aware Reranking for Agent Memory Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Bridging Passive and Active: Enhancing Conversation Starter Recommendation via Active Expression Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	ReFlect: An Effective Harness System for Complex Long-Horizon LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	CKT-WAM: Parameter-Efficient Context Knowledge Transfer Between World Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	VLA-GSE: Boosting Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning in VLA with Generalized and Specialized Experts	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Adaptive Q-Chunking for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	AI-Aided Advancements in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	AI-Aided Advancements in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-06	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.64	Right Model, Right Time: Real-Time Cascaded-Fidelity MPC for Bipedal Walking	arxiv 2026-05-06	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	HDFlow: Hierarchical Diffusion-Flow Planning for Long-horizon Tasks	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-09	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-08	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.64	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	FDA ANDA214376: MYCOPHENOLATE SODIUM (MYCOPHENOLATE SODIUM) — YICHANG HUMANWELL	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA213603: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — ZHEJIANG YONGTAI	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-13	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.64	TextSeal: A Localized LLM Watermark for Provenance & Distillation Protection	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Trajectory-Agnostic Asteroid Detection in TESS with Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.64	Trust the Batch, On- or Off-Policy: Adaptive Policy Optimization for RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	STRABLE: Benchmarking Tabular Machine Learning with Strings	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	No More, No Less: Task Alignment in Terminal Agents	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	No More, No Less: Task Alignment in Terminal Agents	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	On What We Can Learn from Low-Resolution Data	arxiv 2026-05-12	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	WorldComp2D: Spatio-semantic Representations of Object Identity and Location from Local Views	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Persona-Conditioned Adversarial Prompting: Multi-Identity Red-Teaming for Adversarial Discovery and Mitigation	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	A Mixture Autoregressive Image Generative Model on Quadtree Regions for Gaussian Noise Removal via Variational Bayes and Gradient Methods	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	A Controlled Counterexample to Strong Proxy-Based Explanations of OOD Performance: in a Fixed Pretraining-and-Probing Setup	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	VNDUQE: Information-Theoretic Novelty Detection using Deep Variational Information Bottleneck	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Fast MoE Inference via Predictive Prefetching and Expert Replication	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Efficient and provably convergent end-to-end training of deep neural networks with linear constraints	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-10-15	234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-13	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.64	Will Deno Deploy acknowledge the incidents of 13th of May 2026 on their status page?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-13	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	MinT: Managed Infrastructure for Training and Serving Millions of LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	70%
0.64	A Hierarchical Language Model with Predictable Scaling Laws and Provable Benefits of Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-13	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.64	Three-Stage Learning Unlocks Strong Performance in Simple Models for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-13	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	CO-MAP: A Reinforcement Learning Approach to the Qubit Allocation Problem	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Pretraining Language Models with Subword Regularization: An Empirical Study of BPE Dropout in Low-Resource NLP	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	TurboGR: An Accelerated Training System for Large-Scale Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Teaching and Learning under Deductive Errors	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Switching Successor Measures for Hierarchical Zero-shot Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Amortized Neural Clustering of Time Series based on Statistical Features	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Bridging Domain Gaps with Target-Aligned Generation for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Bridging Domain Gaps with Target-Aligned Generation for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Controlling Logical Collapse in LLMs via Algebraic Ontology Projection over F2	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	The Expressivity Boundary of Probabilistic Circuits: A Comparison with Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	FDA ANDA201446: FALLBACK SOLO (LEVONORGESTREL) — LUPIN	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA NDA021343: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Self-Distilled Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	A Hardware-Aware, Per-Layer Methodology for Post-Training Quantization of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	ReMIA: a Powerful and Efficient Alternative to Membership Inference Attacks against Synthetic Data Generators	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Fast Rates for Inverse Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	ArcGate: Adaptive Arctangent Gated Activation	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	NodeSynth: Socially Aligned Synthetic Data for AI Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Analog RF Computing: A New Paradigm for Energy-Efficient Edge AI Over MU-MIMO Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Minimal-Intervention KV Retention: A Design-Space Study and a Diversity-Penalty Survivor	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.64	will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-16	242_026 Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	38%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	FDA NDA021379: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA204741: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — AMNEAL PHARMS	fda 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.64	FDA ANDA079204: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — TARO	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will the May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-16	230_015 For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). Alex Wissner-Gross	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.64	Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 19?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%