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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 0.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.55 | U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Gloucestershire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by June 15?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 243_035 Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | CB Murcia vs. Barcelona(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 9?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.55 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Minnesota Vikings next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 55% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | SPC_020 Archer Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger flights by late 2026 — bolstered by FAA federal pilot programs; integrates NVIDIA IGX Thor onboard compute for predictive awareness, pilot safety, and autonomy-ready flight syst... Brett Adcock | Auto/Transport | 26% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 10?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Valencia vs. Joventut(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.55 | Will Kyler Murray be traded?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-26 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.55 | Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.55 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% |