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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.62	Rethinking Psychometric Evaluation of LLMs: When and Why Self-Reports Predict Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	TrajGenAgent: A Hierarchical LLM Agent for Human Mobility Trajectory Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Bag of Dims: Training-Free Mechanistic Interpretability via Dimension-Level Sign Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Dense Supervision, Sparse Updates: On the Sparsity and Geometry of On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-11	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	S-GBT: Smooth Growth Bound Tensor for Certified Robustness Against Word Substitution Attacks in NLP	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	When Does Routing Become Interpretable? Causal Probes on Block Attention Residuals	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	$α$-fair heterogeneous agent reinforcement learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Forecasting Is Not Attribution: Localizing Decoder Bypass in Graph-Based Neural Marketing Mix Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Operads for compositional reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	EvoBrowseComp: Benchmarking Search Agents on Evolving Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	EvoBrowseComp: Benchmarking Search Agents on Evolving Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	MÖVE: A Holistic LLM Benchmark for the German Public Sector	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.62	Trait, Not State: The Durability of Reading Identity in Social Highlighting	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Trait, Not State: The Durability of Reading Identity in Social Highlighting	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	Trait, Not State: The Durability of Reading Identity in Social Highlighting	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	facebookresearch/pytorchvideo 0.1.3	github_release 2021-09-10	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-13	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.62	Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-13	240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.62	Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-13	247_026 Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.62	Will Anthropic remove the data retention rule on Fable 5 before July?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-13	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	FDA ANDA203047: VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE (VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE) — HETERO LABS LTD V	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.9.0	github_release 2019-12-04	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.62	Who will win the 2026 FIDE World Team Rapid Championship?	manifold 2026-06-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.62	FusionRS: A Large-Scale RGB-Infrared Remote Sensing Dataset for Dual-Modal Vision-Language Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	FusionRS: A Large-Scale RGB-Infrared Remote Sensing Dataset for Dual-Modal Vision-Language Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Decision-Weighted Flow Matching for Contextual Stochastic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Decision-Weighted Flow Matching for Contextual Stochastic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	P3B3: A Multi-Turn Conversational Benchmark for Measuring European and Brazilian Portuguese Variety Bias in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	ArtNet: A JEPA-Like Articulatory Predictive Framework for Robust Zero-Shot Phoneme Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	The Faithfulness Gap: Certifying Semantic Equivalence Between Natural-Language and Formal Mathematical Statements	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Data Augmentations for Data-Constrained Language Model Pretraining	arxiv 2026-06-15	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Formalize Once, Edit the Rest: Efficient Lean-Based Answer Selection for Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Geometric Action Model for Robot Policy Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Dynestyx: A Probabilistic Programming Library for Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	RepNet: Tackling spectral bias in deep neural networks via parameter reparameterization	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	RepNet: Tackling spectral bias in deep neural networks via parameter reparameterization	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Assessing Reliability of Symbol Detection in Concept Bottleneck Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Rapid Poison: Practical Poisoning Attacks Against the Rapid Response Framework	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Shift-and-Sum Quantization for Visual Autoregressive Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Circuit Tracing in Autoregressive Protein Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.62	The Information-Theoretic Benefit of Shared Representations under Orthogonality Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Context-Aware RL for Agentic and Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Understanding Scam Trends and Rail Paths from Reddit Self-Disclosure Narratives	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	Data-Driven Decoding of Russell's Circumplex Model of Affect	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Bridging the Usability Gap: Lessons from Interpreting Studies for Machine Interpreting Design	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.62	Re-feeding Is Not Replaying: Measuring Replay Noise in Counterfactual Token-Credit Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	SidewalkBench: Benchmarking Visual Navigation on Urban Sidewalks	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Video-Based Optimal Transport for Feedback-Efficient Offline Preference-Based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Pride and Prejudice: Toward an Information-Theoretic Framework for Mutually Communicative Driver Behavior Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Will I manage to get a question included in Tom Scott's Lateral podcast in 2026?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-16	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) close above $65,000 on July 31, 2026?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-06-12	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	Querying an astronomical database using large language models: the ALeRCE text-to-SQL system	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Robustness of Similarity-based Positional Encoding Under Rotations: Theoretical Analysis and Experimental Validation	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	MathVis-Fine: Aligning Visual Supervision with Necessity via Progressive Dependency-Guided Training for Multimodal Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Perceptual compensation for tonal context in self-supervised speech models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	LiveStarPro: Proactive Streaming Video Understanding with Hierarchical Memory for Long-Horizon Streams	arxiv 2026-06-16	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.62	Visored: A Controlled-Natural-Language Prover for LLM-Generated Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	Online LLM Selection via Constrained Bandits with Time-Varying Demand	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Translating the Untranslatable: An Operationalizable Ontology for Untranslatability	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Counterfactual Optimization of Baseball Pitch Sequences and Estimation of Its Impact on Season-Level Statistics	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	ARVO: Atlas of Reproducible Vulnerabilities for Open-Source Software	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	Pulling The REINS: Training-Free Safety Alignment of Video Diffusion Models via Representation Steering	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	From Reasoning Traces to Reusable Modules: Understanding Compositional Generalization in Language Model Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Bounded Difference Concentration for Infinitely Exchangeable Sequences with Applications to AI Benchmark Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Accelerated Convex Optimization via Hamiltonian Dynamics with Deterministic Integration Time	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	Rethinking Groups in Critic-Free RLVR	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Are you speaking my languages? On spoken language adherence in multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Speaking in Self-Assessing Tongues: On the Verbalized Confidence of LLMs in Machine Translation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Self-Generated Error Training for Token Editing in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	MemSlides: A Hierarchical Memory Driven Agent Framework for Personalized Slide Generation with Multi-turn Local Revision	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	A Hybrid Optimization Framework for Grasp Synthesis under Partial Observations	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Continual Online Personalization of Exoskeleton Control via Manifold-Aware Experience Replay	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Beyond Benchmarks: Continuous Edge Inference for Fine-Grained Roadside Perception	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.62	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Trade-offs in Medical LLM Adaptation: An Empirical Study in French QA	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	The More the Merrier: Combining Properties for ABox Abduction under Repair Semantics for ELbot	arxiv 2026-06-17	246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Scaling Learning-based AEB with Massive Unlabeled Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Scaling Learning-based AEB with Massive Unlabeled Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Target-confidence Recourse Using tSeTlin machines: TRUST	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	The Reward Was in Your Data All Along: Correcting Flow Matching with Discriminator-Guided RL	arxiv 2026-06-17	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	Investigating Inductive Biases for Machine Learning Emulation of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Idealised Isca Simulations	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Investigating Inductive Biases for Machine Learning Emulation of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Idealised Isca Simulations	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	Quantum Annealing Enhanced Reinforcement Learning for Accurate Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-16	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	Mixed-Precision Communication-Avoiding SGD for Generalized Linear Models on GPUs	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	SCOPE-FL: A Strategy-proof Chain-based Optimal pareto efficient Federated Learning System	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_026 The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely on proprietary algorithms and compute concentration has been heavily challenged — rapid uncontrollable diffusion of highly capable open-source models (De... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	77%
0.62	Do Time Series Foundation Model Benchmarks Hide Regime-Dependent Failures? Evidence from Traffic Speed Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-16	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	Dango: A Strictly L1-Only Large Language Model for Studying Second Language Acquisition	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	GraphPO: Graph-based Policy Optimization for Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Graph-ESBMC-PLC: Formal Verification of Graphical PLCopen XML Ladder Diagram Programs Using SMT-Based Model Checking	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Learning Robust Pair Confidence for Multimodal Emotion-Cause Pair Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	The Wrong Kind of Right: Quantifying and Localizing Misfired Alignment in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Speech-Driven End-to-End Language Discrimination towards Chinese Dialects	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	PreUnlearn: Auditing Collateral Knowledge Damage Before Large Language Model Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-16	230_038 AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	VISUALSKILL: Multimodal Skills for Computer-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Shape Sensing of Continuum Robots using Direct Laser Writing	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_042 A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. Salim Ismail	Robotics	39%
0.62	GCNGrasp-VP: Affordance-Guided View Planning for Efficient Task-Oriented Grasping	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	DataMagic: Transforming Tabular Data into Data Insight Video	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Confidence-Aware Automated Assessment of Student-Drawn Scientific Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	SPOT-E: Test-Time Entropy Shaping with Visual Spotlights for Frozen VLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Learner-based Concept Drift Detection: Analysis and Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Apparent Psychological Profiles of Large Language Models are Largely a Measurement Artifact	arxiv 2026-06-18	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.62	From Texts to Scores: Tracing the Emergence of Essay Quality Representations in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.62	Token Factory: Efficiently Integrating Diverse Signals into Large Recommendation Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	VCG: A Multimodal Retrieval Framework for E-Commerce Video Feeds under Extreme Cold-Start Conditions	arxiv 2026-06-17	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.62	Latent Confounded Causal Discovery via Lie Bracket Geometry	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	On the Redundancy of Timestep Embeddings in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Quantum-classical physics-informed Kolmogorov-Arnold networks for PDEs	arxiv 2026-06-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.62	Alzheimer's Disease Diagnosis using a Multimodal Approach with 3D MRI and PET	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	On the Oracle Complexity of Interpolation-Based Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	On the Oracle Complexity of Interpolation-Based Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-06-18	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	Advances in Scientific Machine Learning for Coupled Fluid Flow and Transport	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Advances in Scientific Machine Learning for Coupled Fluid Flow and Transport	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.62	Spectral DPPs via NEPv: A Scalable Continuous Relaxation of Determinantal MAP for Diversity-Aware Data Selection	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	NEST: Narrative Event Structures in Time for Long Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	SAGE-OPD: Selective Agent-Guided Intervention for Multi-Turn On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	VFILC: Accurate Frequency Extrapolations in Imitation Learning via Sampling Frequency ILC	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	MMD-SLAM: Structure-Enhanced Multi-Meta Gaussian Distribution-Guided Visual SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.62	Simulating Robotic Locomotion in Sand: Resistive Force Theory in an Open-Source Physics Engine	arxiv 2026-06-17	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.62	Space-time duality approach to (inhomogeneous) integrable quenches	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	FDA ANDA219370: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — AUSON	fda 2026-06-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	FDA NDA021078: MALARONE PEDIATRIC (ATOVAQUONE) — GLAXOSMITHKLINE	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	Spread: Japan (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.62	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Arlan get 1 million users by July 1st, 2026?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-20	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	FDA BLA761234: OPDUALAG (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	FDA NDA021131: ZYVOX (LINEZOLID) — PFIZER	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.62	Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.62	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.62	Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	What Will The Odyssey Global Box Office Gross be (in Millions)	manifold 2026-06-23	246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis	AI	76%
0.62	On what days will I be productive?	manifold 2026-06-23	237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin	AI	47%
0.62	CoorDex: Coordinating Body and Hand Priors for Continuous Dexterous Humanoid Loco-Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Kamera: Unified Position-Invariant Multimodal KV Cache for Training-Free Reuse	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Automated Semantic Fault Localization in SysML v2: A Human-in-the-Loop Framework Using Knowledge-Graph Augmented LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.62	Energy-Based Transformers as Predictors of Reading Difficulty	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	PRIDE: Privileged Information-enhanced Distillation for Empathetic Dialogue Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	AdaReP:Adaptive Re-Planning under Model Mismatch for Neural World-Model Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Discovering Crystal Structure Prediction Algorithms with an AI Co-Scientist	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Bagpiper-TTS: Natural Language Guided Universal Speech Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Safety-Aware Evaluation of LLM-Generated Driver Intervention Messages through Multi-Task Risk Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-21	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Confidently Wrong: Severity-Aware Calibration of Prompt-Injection Detectors under Attack Shift	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	From CVE to CWE: Syscall-Based HIDS Generalisation	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	Fed-CausalDiff: Decoupled Synchronization for Federated Do-Simulation and Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-21	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Fed-CausalDiff: Decoupled Synchronization for Federated Do-Simulation and Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-21	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	An LLM-Orchestrated Agent for Directional-Coupler Design with Self-Consistent Eigenmode and FDTD Validation	arxiv 2026-06-21	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.62	Hedgementation = Hedgerow Segmentation: A Remote Sensing Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.62	SVD-Surgeon: Optimal Singular-Value Surgery for Large Language Model Compression	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Do Location Encoders Capture Spatial Effects? A GeoShapley Benchmark Across Scales	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	The Anatomy of the CTC Oracle Gap: Acoustic Exhaustion and Linguistic Recovery	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Scalable Physics-Inspired Transformers for Spin Glasses	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Error Highways: Scaling Predictive Coding to Very Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Error Highways: Scaling Predictive Coding to Very Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Stationary Robust Mean-Field Games under Model Mismatches	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	The Scissors Effect: When Resize-Based Input Diversity Helps or Hurts Transfer Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-21	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	On the Effect of Segmentation Width and Cluster Size on Speech Resynthesis and Continuation in Generative Spoken Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	A Vendor-Agnostic LiDAR Data Conversion System with Multi-Signal Detection and Multi-Format Output	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	Geometric Reconstruction of Extrinsic Contact Trajectories using Tactile Sensing and Proprioception for Tool Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-20	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	FDA ANDA204979: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.62	Will an extraterrestrial "abduction" occur during Brazil vs Scotland at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-24	241_040 A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act Eric Schmidt	AI	46%
0.62	How many times will New Glenn launch in 2027?	manifold 2026-06-22	242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis	Space	56%
0.62	Matching Tasks to Objectives: Fine-Tuning and Prompt-Tuning Strategies for Encoder-Decoder Pre-trained Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Task Decomposition for Efficient Annotation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	CineCap: Structured Reasoning with Spatio-Temporal Anchors for Cinematographic Video Captioning	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	NoContactNoWorries: Estimating Contact through Vision and Proprioception for In-Hand Dexterous Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	When Helpfulness Overrides Causal Caution: Context-Dependent Suppression and Recovery in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Neural Network-Based Parametric Model Reduction for Predicting Turbulent Flow for Different Vehicle Geometries	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	PixJail: Self-Evolving Paper-to-Pipeline Reproduction for Text-to-Image Jailbreak Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	Faithful by Construction: Claim-Anchored Attribution for Multi-Document Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	An LLM-based Two-Stage Transformer Framework for Cross-Domain Bearing Fault Diagnosis with Limited Data	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	An Agnostic Machine Learning Model of Photosynthetic Habitability	arxiv 2026-06-23	242_040 Mars/Europa/planets will have ubiquitous microbial life Peter Diamandis	Space	39%
0.62	A Time-Reparameterized Cumulative Intensity Extrapolation Sampler for Discrete Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	You Don't Need to Run Every Eval	arxiv 2026-06-22	238_007 There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands of successful AI startups Eric Schmidt	AI	44%
0.62	Forget Without Compromise: Nexus Sampling for Streaming KV-Cache Eviction Under Fixed Budgets	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.62	Scalable Physics-Inspired Transformers for Spin Glasses	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	ComputeFHE: A Privacy-Preserving General-Purpose Computation Library	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	CORE-BREW: LLR-Based Soft Decoding for Robust Multi-Bit LLM Watermarking	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	PDS Joint: A Parametric Double-Spiral Joint Tailored for Dexterous Hands	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	TurboMPC: Fast, Scalable, and Differentiable Model Predictive Control on the GPU	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%