Predictions
389 of 1,621 predictions match — page 8 of 8. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 231_017 | AI | AI-scaling | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_024 | AI | AI-scaling | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in th… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_039 | AI | NVIDIA | Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_048 | AI | AI-timing | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will compl… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_002 | AI | AI-timing | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more ra… | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_011 | AI | AI-timing | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for hi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_016 | AI | AI-timing | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inven… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_017 | AI | AI-timing | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_019 | AI | AI-timing | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | Ben Horowitz | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_023 | AI | AI-timing | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastr… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_033 | AI | crypto | Cryptographically strong authentication is the only security technique that w… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_040 | AI | superintelligence | Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of… | Nick Bostrom | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for build… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_054 | AI | AI-timing | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_055 | AI | AI-timing | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement un… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_056 | AI | AI-timing | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattene… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_058 | AI | AI-timing | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 233_006 | AI | AI-timing | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 an… | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 233_021 | AI | AGI | AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making … | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 237_007 | AI | AI-timing | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI lik… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 235_001 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 247_036 | AI | crypto | Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-08-31 | |
| FUT_002 | AI | AGI-2029-2031-Metaculus-consensus | Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over … | Superforecaster Community | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | in_progress | 2029-01-01 – 2031-08-31 |
| INF_071 | AI | AGI-2029-singularity | Artificial General Intelligence will be achieved by 2029; humans will begin t… | Ray Kurzweil | 5/5 | A | 45.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 234_020 | AI | AI-timing | AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_001 | AI | ASI-2030-peak-human | AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable doma… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 32.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AUT_012 | AI | world-models-AGI-2030-2035 | True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world mo… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 45.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| CMQ_003 | AI | superintelligence | By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| INF_022 | AI | nanotech-third-bridge | By the 2030s, the 'third bridge' of nanotechnology will enable molecular-leve… | Ray Kurzweil | 3/5 | C | 10.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2045-10-31 |
| INF_072 | AI | AGI-scaling-50-50 | There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodolog… | Demis Hassabis | 3/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2042-09-30 |
| SPC_023 | AI | Altman-roadmap-2030-2036 | Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence … | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 18.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 241_001 | AI | AI-timing | We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_038 | AI | AI-scaling | TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2033-08-31 |
| 246_042 | AI | AI-timing | On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans livi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2036-08-31 |
| 230_038 | AI | AI-timing | AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution eff… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| 233_012 | AI | AI-timing | AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| AI_006 | AI | agents-decade-out | True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horiz… | Andrej Karpathy | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2034-01-01 – 2034-10-31 |
| IND_004 | AI | AGI-decade-away-2-percent-blend | True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT mani… | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2034-01-01 – 2034-09-30 |
| AI_007 | AI | singularity-2039-nanobots | Technological singularity arrives by 2039 — computing capacity matches the hu… | Ray Kurzweil | 5/5 | B | 20.0% | pending | 2039-01-01 – 2039-08-31 |