Predictions
1,621 of 1,621 predictions match — page 8 of 33. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CYB_010 | Markets/Stocks | agentic-commerce-redistribution | Agentic commerce will radically redistribute — not grow — the global commerce… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| CYB_011 | Consumer | ask-and-buy-delegation | Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persisten… | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| CYB_012 | AI | recommendation-poisoning | 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, trainin… | Alex Finn | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-08-31 |
| CYB_014 | Macro/Economy | ExO-demonetization | The Exponential Organization (ExO) framework becomes mandatory corporate stru… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 58.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| CYB_017 | Labor/Jobs | prompt-engineering-commerce | Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces … | David Holz | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| CYB_018 | Robotics | Figure-39B-valuation | Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing Space… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| CYB_019 | Robotics | world-model-training-grounds | Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and antici… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| CYB_020 | Space | Starlink-AI-data-canopy | Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe appr… | Gwynne Shotwell | 4/5 | C | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| CYB_021 | Space | orbital-AI-life-support | Commercial orbital missions will increasingly depend on AI for advanced simul… | Jared Isaacman | 4/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-11-30 |
| CYB_022 | AI | LiteLLM-supply-chain-vulnerability | Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exem… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| CYB_024 | Defense | ChatGPT-moment-genetic-engineering | The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively c… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| CYB_025 | Other | prompter-to-partner-liability | The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an ac… | Ralph Losey | 4/5 | C | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| CYB_026 | Geopolitics | US-moat-open-source-diffusion | The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-ter… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | A | 85.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| CYB_028 | Markets/Stocks | AI-dot-com-bubble-parallel | The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-199… | Mark Cuban | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| CYB_029 | AI | centralized-decentralized-schism | Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesse… | Anthropic | 4/5 | B | 88.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| FUT_003 | AI | extinction-risk-0.38-vs-3-percent | Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinc… | Superforecaster Community | 4/5 | B | 100.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| FUT_004 | AI | Large-Action-Models-displace-LLMs | Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 202… | Amy Webb | 5/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| FUT_005 | Biotech/Longevity | Living-Intelligence-synthetic-biology | Emergence of 'Living Intelligence' 2026-2031: violent transformative converge… | Amy Webb | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-06-30 |
| FUT_006 | Macro/Economy | strategic-creative-destruction | Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deli… | Amy Webb | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| FUT_007 | Macro/Economy | structural-demographic-depression-2026-2031 | Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 —… | Peter Zeihan | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| FUT_008 | Geopolitics | China-terminal-decline-2036 | China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 1… | Peter Zeihan | 5/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| FUT_009 | Geopolitics | localized-warfare-copper-fertilizer-energy | Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localize… | Peter Zeihan | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| FUT_010 | Energy | solar-4x-cost-reduction-33-percent-global | Fundamental cost of clean electricity drops by another multiple of 4 over 202… | Ramez Naam | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| FUT_012 | Energy | grid-parity-subsidy-independent-fossil-stranding | Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building… | Ramez Naam | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| FUT_013 | Auto/Transport | battery-swapping-clean-li-ion-shipping | Exponential scaling of modular battery swapping infrastructure (Ample), mass … | Ramez Naam | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| FUT_014 | Geopolitics | US-political-revolution-1-risk | 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group … | Ian Bremmer | 5/5 | A | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| FUT_015 | Geopolitics | multipolarity-without-multilateralism | Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia… | Ian Bremmer | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| FUT_016 | Labor/Jobs | FLUX-superpowers-portfolio-careers-2030 | Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' … | April Rinne | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| FUT_017 | Media/Ads | hyper-adaptable-near-future-planning | Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizat… | Gerd Leonhard | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| FUT_018 | Energy | Energy-Islanding-sovereign-autonomy | Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geog… | Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| FUT_019 | Biotech/Longevity | bio-industrial-circumvention-synthesis | Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured s… | Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-06-30 |
| FUT_020 | Labor/Jobs | LAM-deployment-forced-by-demographic-atrophy | Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs … | Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| FUT_021 | AI | physical-friction-governor-on-ASI | Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted ph… | Superforecaster Community | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| FUT_022 | Macro/Economy | North-American-industrial-resurgence | Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by ge… | Peter Zeihan | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| FUT_023 | Geopolitics | demographic-bifurcation-wealthy-vs-resource-starved | 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and st… | Ian Bremmer | 4/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| FUT_025 | Energy | renewable-runaway-feedback-loop | Runaway economic feedback loop 2026-2031: cheaper renewable energy incentiviz… | Ramez Naam | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| IND_001 | Labor/Jobs | Mac-Mini-autonomous-enterprise-parity | Single operators utilizing low-cost hardware (e.g., $600 Mac Minis) will be a… | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| IND_002 | Education | orchestration-over-execution-curriculum | Educational systems must pivot from teaching skill acquisition and execution … | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-05-31 |
| IND_007 | Labor/Jobs | corporate-collapse-2026-buzzard-human | Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| IND_008 | Biotech/Longevity | biological-freedom-country-of-geniuses | 2026 era characterized as building a 'country of geniuses in a datacenter' — … | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-09-30 |
| IND_010 | Biotech/Longevity | Varda-orbital-pharma-factory-to-pharma | Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space I… | Jared Isaacman | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| IND_015 | Macro/Economy | economic-inversion-AI-CEO-billionaire | Integration of open agentic systems drives near-term 'economic inversion' — a… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| IND_016 | Space | five-uncrewed-Starships-Mars-2026 | By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Stars… | Gwynne Shotwell | 5/5 | A | 12.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| IND_017 | Macro/Economy | AI-CEO-billionaire-Agentic-Era-50T | Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 22.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| IND_018 | Crypto | techno-feudalism-AI-state-alliance | Imminent rise of 'techno-feudalism' — hidden inextricable alliance between Ar… | Michael Saylor | 5/5 | B | 28.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| IND_019 | Labor/Jobs | MS-4-percent-net-job-reduction | 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| IND_020 | Biotech/Longevity | De-Novo-moment-gene-editing-100x | Massive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| IND_023 | Robotics | bipedal-robotics-municipal-utility | 'Cambrian explosion of bipedal labor' driven by hundreds of robotics companie… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | C | 48.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| IND_025 | Macro/Economy | Ismail-Agentic-Era-2027-ExO | Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates kn… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| IND_027 | Labor/Jobs | reasoning-boom-20-80-human-AI-split | Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a … | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 42.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |