Predictions
1,622 of 1,622 predictions match — page 9 of 33. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INF_003 | Macro/Economy | AI-infrastructure-buildout | The global AI infrastructure buildout is in its earliest phase — only a few h… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| INF_004 | Geopolitics | China-ghost-DCs | China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilit… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_005 | Labor/Jobs | blue-collar-boom | Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment o… | Jensen Huang | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| INF_009 | AI | organoid-computing | The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_012 | Energy | AI-power-additions | AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually t… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_013 | Energy | BYOP-gas | Natural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outsid… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | A | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| INF_014 | Energy | DC-carbon-emissions | Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively th… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| INF_015 | Energy | cooling-KPIs | Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) and Water Usage Effectiveness (WUE) will tran… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 90.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_017 | Energy | Colossus-Phase-2 | xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| INF_019 | Energy | DC-water-consumption | A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of fre… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_021 | Energy | steel-mills-climate-deferral | AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will mis… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_023 | Robotics | automated-construction | Data-center physical shells will be increasingly erected by 3D-printing and r… | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| INF_024 | Markets/Stocks | VC-infrastructure-pivot | Venture capital will pivot from funding software startups toward financing na… | Marc Andreessen / Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | B | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| INF_026 | AI | software-3.0-utility | 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requir… | Andrej Karpathy | 4/5 | B | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_027 | Biotech/Longevity | drug-timeline-compression | AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-developmen… | Demis Hassabis | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-06-30 |
| INF_029 | Macro/Economy | outcome-economics | Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-base… | Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| INF_030 | AI | SMB-democratization | By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabiliti… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| INF_031 | AI | AI-company-risk | The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting w… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_033 | Geopolitics | AI-super-PAC-mobilization | Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to en… | Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz) | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_034 | Real Estate | DC-REIT-expansion | Equinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments … | Equinix | 5/5 | B | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| INF_035 | Semis | 3D-printed-cooling | Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates wil… | Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded) | 4/5 | C | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| INF_036 | AI | kinetic-edge-AI | AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous veh… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 65.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| INF_037 | Geopolitics | US-China-AI-arms-race | An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching sup… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 85.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_039 | Consumer | Mac-supply-crunch | Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple … | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| INF_041 | Education | K-12-AI-reimagining | K-12 education will be rebuilt from first principles using AI systems — insti… | Joe Liemandt / MacKenzie Price | 4/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| INF_043 | AI | intelligence-deflation | Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driv… | Marc Andreessen | 5/5 | B | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| INF_044 | Energy | US-energy-demand-growth | US total energy consumption will rise by approximately 10% over the next deca… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| INF_045 | Energy | nuclear-renaissance-capex | Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital in… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2050-11-30 |
| INF_046 | Geopolitics | sovereign-AI-energy-independence | Governments worldwide will increasingly prioritize absolute energy independen… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_047 | Macro/Economy | US-GDP-forecast-2026 | 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily b… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| INF_049 | Energy | gigawatt-factory-bottleneck | Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; e… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_059 | Energy | Global-South-energy-stacking | Global South energy transitions will follow "energy stacking" rather than sub… | Peter Dannenberg | 3/5 | C | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| INF_060 | Energy | post-lithium-batteries | Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 —… | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_063 | Energy | grid-scale-battery-necessity | Advancing sustainable, high-capacity battery storage is the only mechanism to… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_065 | Auto/Transport | uber-robotaxi-charging-$100M | Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV chargin… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_067 | Auto/Transport | utilization-guarantee-agreements | Uber will execute "utilization guarantee agreements" with major charging netw… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_068 | Crypto | bitcoin-nation-state-buying-2026 | 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulatio… | Michael Saylor | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| INF_070 | Energy | bitcoin-mining-load-balancer | Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energ… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| ROB_003 | AI | science-25-in-5-years | AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery … | Kevin Weil | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| ROB_007 | Robotics | Physical-AI-50T-opportunity | The technology sector is crossing a $1 trillion computing inflection point tr… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 48.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-09-30 |
| ROB_009 | Robotics | Optimus-30K-retail-2026 | External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,00… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| ROB_011 | Space | Optimus-Mars-2026 | An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomo… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 8.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| ROB_012 | Semis | Taiwan-GPU-singularity-bottleneck | The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software archit… | David Holz | 5/5 | B | 85.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| ROB_013 | Robotics | language-to-actuation-generalization | Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D … | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | C | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| ROB_014 | Labor/Jobs | Yang-40M-jobs-bloodbath | White-collar 'bloodbath' could displace up to 40 million US jobs — leading ed… | Andrew Yang | 5/5 | B | 32.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| ROB_018 | Macro/Economy | Enterprise-Singularity-Amazon | The 'Enterprise Singularity' — Amazon will soon become the first major corpor… | Jason Calacanis | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| ROB_019 | Macro/Economy | Electro-Industrial-Stack | The rise of the 'Electro-Industrial Stack' — AI moving out of the browser and… | Marc Andreessen | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| ROB_020 | Macro/Economy | Factory-is-the-Product | The 'Factory-is-the-Product' model will dominate venture-backed manufacturing… | Marc Andreessen | 4/5 | B | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| ROB_021 | Geopolitics | US-China-physical-engineering-race | The United States is locked in a fierce physical engineering race with China … | Marc Andreessen | 5/5 | B | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-10-31 |
| ROB_022 | Defense | physical-AI-national-security | Maintaining technological competitiveness in Physical AI is an acute, existen… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-09-30 |