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75,032 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 56 of 165, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.62 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-01 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Terminator2 have at least 200 Moltbook followers by 2026-05-18?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.62 | US x China tariff agreement by May 31st? [Polymarket](market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. Kevin Weil | AI/Agents | 74% | |
| 0.62 | Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of August 2026?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 243_002 Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 75% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.62 | New fish species (market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Will BTC-USD close above $100,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-29 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.62 | Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | |
| 0.62 | Will Unicode remove an existing emoji before the end of 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | FUT_006 Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deliberately dismantle legacy operations before lateral multi-domain convergence renders them obsolete. Traditional technology hype cycle rejected; future no longer arrives one tr... Amy Webb | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | Free Lottery (tidal disruption event)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_013 Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign semiconductor production is existential. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 73% | ||
| 0.62 | Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_008 Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 62% | |
| 0.62 | Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.62 | Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will the S&P500 be down greater than 1% in a week?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.62 | Will Apple TV+ launch in Romania tommorow at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Will I get a 32768 tile in 2048 at MOP 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Best meme competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 351(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.62 | Will I (Mitpro) reach Expert in Codeforces again before July 1st(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.62 | Will Jesus return on November 25 2026(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi | Robotics | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 232_030 AI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-based new banks and money. Ben Horowitz | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.62 | Will June 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.62 | [Short Fuse] Will Anthropi reset Max users' limit in the next 7 days?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis | AI | 76% | |
| 0.62 | Will I make USA TST Group 2027?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | US-Iran deal text released by June 19? [Polymarket](market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.62 | Will I make mana on this market?(market prob: 91%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% |