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75,032 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 48 of 165, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.63 | Will HackerNews #1 story score go up in 24h?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.63 | Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | |
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $85K in May?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | humanoid_deployment | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin | AI | 42% | |
| 0.63 | Will Apple stop selling the $599 MacBook Neo SKU before the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | |
| 0.63 | Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 41% | |
| 0.63 | Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin | Media/Ads | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.63 | Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.63 | Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_021 Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.63 | Will Apple announce the M5 Mac mini during the WWDC Keynote?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 237_004 Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. Peter Diamandis | Consumer | 55% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-05 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the S&P500 be down greater than 1% in a week?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.63 | 30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | 30% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-08 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.63 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.63 | Will it rain at manifest 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | ||
| 0.63 | Will this market get between 10-20 unique traders by June 20?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.63 | Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 243_003 By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 229_019 Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 30% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 232_048 Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Bitcoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.63 | Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.63 | Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 23% | |
| 0.63 | Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% |