Validations Queue
106,328 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 398 of 563, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Tom Kim win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 236_025 Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes Andrew Yang | Real Estate | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% |