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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.67	Quantifying Subliminal Behavioral Transfer Ratios in Language Model Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	FDA ANDA210692: ATOVAQUONE (ATOVAQUONE) — HETERO LABS LTD III	fda 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will the Oscars loosen rules on AI tool use by 2030?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-11	ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	29%
0.67	MiniMax Sparse Attention	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Who Pays the Price? Stakeholder-Centric Prompt Injection Benchmarking for Real-world Web Agents	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.67	(Human) Attention Is (Still) All You Need: Human oversight makes AI-assisted social science reliable	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_025 Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Agentic MPC for Semantic Control System Resynthesis	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	PI-Hunter: Automated Red-Teaming for Exposing and Localizing Prompt Injections	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.67	Quantizing Time-Series Models As Dynamical Systems: Trajectory-Based Quantization Sensitivity Score	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Normative Robustness as a Frontier for Non-Verifiable Reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Recursive Agent Harnesses	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Low cost, easily manufactured, highly flexible strain and touch sensitive fiber for robotics applications	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will OpenAI delay OR withdraw a model release due to demands by the US US government by EOY 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-13	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.67	Will any the weights for any new Qwen Model >=100B parameters release before 2027(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-12	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	By when will there be an unresupplied crewed spacecraft flight longer than 150 days?	manifold 2026-06-14	S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	50%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Phantoms and Disclosures: a Causal Framework for Auditing Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.67	Scaling LLM Reasoning from Minimal Labels: A Semi-Supervised Framework with a Lightweight Verifier	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Adaptive inference and function vectors in deep transformers	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Entropy-Gated Latent Recursion	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	AI Supply Chain Galaxy: 3D Visual Analytics for License Compliance	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.67	Phys-JEPA: Physics-Informed Latent World Models for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	ExpRL: Exploratory RL for LLM Mid-Training	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Taming Curvature: Architecture Warm-Up for Stable Transformer Training	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	Hidden Degradation Costs in Energy-Cost-Only HEMS Optimisation: Study on Battery and PV Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-06-14	FUT_013 Exponential scaling of modular battery swapping infrastructure (Ample), mass production of clean-energy lithium-ion batteries (Northvolt), and low-GHG shipping + massive high-voltage ultra-long-distance transmission grids become economically viable pur... Ramez Naam	Auto/Transport	44%
0.67	APEX: Adaptive Policy Execution for Precise Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	SAPS: Shared Autonomy for Policy Steering by Blending Teleoperation with a Pretrained VLA	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Anthropic release a non-Fable model before Fable is rereleased?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-17	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.67	How many orbital launches will there be in 2027?	manifold 2026-06-17	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.67	Your AI Travel Agent Would Book You a Bullfight: An Agentic Benchmark for Implicit Animal Welfare in Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	Your AI Travel Agent Would Book You a Bullfight: An Agentic Benchmark for Implicit Animal Welfare in Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	PearlVLA: Progressive Embodied Action-Plan Refinement in Latent Space	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	AnchorKV: Safety-Aware KV Cache Compression via Soft Penalty with a Refusal Anchor	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	SEAGym: An Evaluation Environment for Self-Evolving LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	AUTOGATE: Automated Clock Gating via Toggling-Aware LLM-based RTL Rewriting	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	SoK: AI-Augmented Binary Reversing	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Compositional Skill Routing for LLM Agents: Decompose, Retrieve, and Compose	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	GameCraft-Bench: Can Agents Build Playable Games End-to-End in a Real Game Engine?	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	From Parasocial Scripts to Dyadic Persistence in Autonomous AI-Agent Communities	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	ThinkingVLA: Interleaved Vision and Language Reasoning for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	When Robots Sleep: Offline Skill Consolidation for Shared-Policy Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) (CIK 0001045810)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.67	Trade-offs in Medical LLM Adaptation: An Empirical Study in French QA	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	TxBench-PP: Analyzing AI Agent Performance on Small-Molecule Preclinical Pharmacology	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Spotlight: Synergizing Seed Exploration and Spot GPUs for DiT RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.67	Improving Human-Robot Teamwork in Urban Search and Rescue Through Episodic Memory of Prior Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Leveraging Energy Features for Surface Classification with Deep Learning: A Comparative Analysis Across Three Independent Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Augmenting Dysarthric Speech Severity Assessment with MOS Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.67	Engagement Intensity as a Learner-Modeling Signal for Adaptive AI Ethics Instruction	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_002 Educational systems must pivot from teaching skill acquisition and execution to teaching orchestration of agentic swarms and discovery of purpose — value accrues to individuals who master AI orchestration over traditional knowledge work; rendering trad... Alex Finn	Education	50%
0.67	Your AI Travel Agent Would Book You a Bullfight: An Agentic Benchmark for Implicit Animal Welfare in Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	Your AI Travel Agent Would Book You a Bullfight: An Agentic Benchmark for Implicit Animal Welfare in Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	InTrain: Intrinsic Trainability for Zero-Cost Neural Architecture Search	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Sequential Hiring of Contingent Workers Through Learning-Based Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_028 AI will render approximately 99% of white-collar jobs replaceable within two years — cognitive-labor costs will mathematically approach the marginal cost of electricity required to generate inference. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	14%
0.67	Zero-Shot Long-Horizon Dexterous Manipulation via Multi-View 3D-Grounded VLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?	manifold 2026-06-19	248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis	Space	58%
0.67	UltraQuant: 4-bit KV Caching for Context-Heavy Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Automating SKILL.md Generation for Computer-Using Agents via Interaction Trajectory Mining	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Augmenting Game AI with Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	AI Economist Agent: An Agentic Framework for Model-Grounded Economic Analysis with RAG, Knowledge Graphs, and Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	ORAgentBench: Can LLM Agents Solve Challenging Operations Research Tasks End to End?	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Before the Pull Request: Mining Multi-Agent Coordination	arxiv 2026-06-17	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.67	A Tool for the Synthesis of Adaptive Probabilistic Processors Based on the Ising Model	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.67	SSH-Net: A Deep Neural Network for Predicting Failure Time Distribution Functions under Competing Risks with Application to GPU Data	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.67	TxBench-PP: Analyzing AI Agent Performance on Small-Molecule Preclinical Pharmacology	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	bioETH-Beacon: A Confidential On-Chain Genomic Beacon with Encrypted Counts, Filters, and Bounded Noise over a Fully Homomorphic EVM	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-05	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-02-08	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	micron technology growth exploding why 135145048.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.67	micron technology growth exploding why 135145048.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.67	meta beats estimates but soaring ai spending rattles investors 1091449.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.67	big tech earnings microsoft ai investment capex plan 2026 4	gdelt 2026-04-30	CYB_018 Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.67	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.67	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.67	Which Rocket Launches Next? III	manifold 2026-04-30	248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. Peter Diamandis	Space	79%
0.67	Will NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day mention the Moon when this resolves?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-04-30	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 1?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Anthropic announces dedicated "Operon" tool for bio/health/other research before June 1, 2026(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Bitcoin $67K in May?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will I get an AI lab offer?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-02	241_039 In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead Eric Schmidt	AI	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 3?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%