Predictions
1,159 of 1,621 predictions match — page 8 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 238_036 | Media/Ads | AI-scaling | Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp… | Emad Mostaque | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2034-06-30 |
| 238_037 | AI | AI-scaling | Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30 |
| 238_038 | AI | AI-scaling | Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attent… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_042 | Consumer | AI-timing | Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail stores | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-06-30 |
| 238_044 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_045 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Eon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possible | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 238_046 | Energy | AI-timing | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Gwynne Shotwell / xAI | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31 |
| 238_048 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Sc… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2032-11-30 |
| 238_053 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innov… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 238_054 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce re… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 238_055 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manu… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 238_056 | Macro/Economy | jobs | Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_060 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come fr… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 238_063 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x mor… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_064 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will f… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_065 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_066 | Energy | AI-timing | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US … | Pete (audience, data center builder) | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31 |
| 238_067 | Energy | AI-scaling | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed region… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31 |
| 238_071 | AI | AI-scaling | Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-tra… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 239_005 | AI | AGI | AI intelligence will far exceed human intelligence to incomprehensible degree | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_006 | AI | AGI | AI will solve everything including longevity | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_007 | AI | AGI | Humans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_014 | Robotics | Optimus | Tesla will build out 10M sq ft Optimus factory | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 239_015 | Labor/Jobs | AGI | Tesla output per employee will become very very high | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_018 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Universal High Income will be implemented | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 239_019 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growth | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 239_020 | AI | AGI | AI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to do | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_021 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Money will stop being relevant at some point | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 239_022 | AI | AGI | Future AI will care about power/mass rather than human currency | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_023 | Macro/Economy | AGI | AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcy | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 239_024 | Biotech/Longevity | AGI | Everyone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest person | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 239_025 | Biotech/Longevity | AGI | AI will solve back pain | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-06-30 |
| 239_028 | Energy | AGI | Intelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possible | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_029 | AI | AGI | Intelligence in solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than on… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_030 | Macro/Economy | economy | 1000x current economy would saturate human desires | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 239_031 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Ben Lamb / Colossal could engineer a Pikachu-like creature | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 239_032 | AI | AGI | Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_002 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year fas… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 240_009 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up … | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 240_011 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 240_013 | AI | AI-timing | Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers … | Sam Altman | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_017 | Energy | AI-timing | Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massiv… | Salim Ismail | 2/5 | D | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-11-30 |
| 240_018 | AI | $100T | Trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-perso… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_020 | AI | AI-scaling | New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next A… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_021 | AI | AI-timing | Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_022 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 240_024 | AI | AGI | Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionate | Marc Andreessen | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_025 | AI | AI-timing | Tesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per m… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_026 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will b… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-05-31 |
| 240_030 | Geopolitics | AGI | Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion o… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30 |