Predictions
1,664 of 1,664 predictions match — page 31 of 34. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 232_046 | Space | SpaceX | SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars afte… | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2029-06-01 – 2029-06-30 |
| 235_041 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2029-06-01 – 2029-06-30 |
| 230_035 | Macro/Economy | economy | GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2033-12-31 |
| 234_020 | AI | AI-timing | AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 235_028 | Biotech/Longevity | $100T | Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 242_033 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| 242_037 | Space | orbital-AI | China will land on the moon before end of 2030 | China (government) | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 243_031 | Labor/Jobs | autonomous | Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 246_017 | Space | AI-timing | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 246_020 | Geopolitics | orbital-AI | China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 247_020 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 247_031 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 247_035 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 247_047 | Energy | AI-timing | Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| AI_001 | AI | ASI-2030-peak-human | AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable doma… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 32.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_031 | Biotech/Longevity | 100-years-biology | AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | in_progress | 2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| AI_035 | Other | meaning-of-life-post-ASI | In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, s… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2045-12-31 |
| AUT_012 | AI | world-models-AGI-2030-2035 | True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world mo… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 45.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| AUT_023 | Auto/Transport | eVTOL-29B-2030-1T-2040 | Urban air mobility (eVTOL) market will generate $29 billion by 2030, scaling … | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| AUT_026 | Biotech/Longevity | in-vivo-nanobots-2030s | By the 2030s, autonomous nanobots will be deployed directly into the human bl… | Ray Kurzweil | 4/5 | B | 18.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2039-06-30 |
| CMQ_003 | AI | superintelligence | By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| CYB_007 | Semis | CPU-market-expansion-refined | Data-center CPU market expansion refined to $32.5-$60 billion by 2030 — CPUs … | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2030-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| IND_009 | Biotech/Longevity | ASI-2030-cure-all-illnesses | Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all… | Demis Hassabis | 5/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2040-06-30 |
| IND_028 | Biotech/Longevity | third-bridge-immortality-2030s | Third bridge toward indefinite human lifespans — achieved via synergy of AI a… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 12.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2039-06-30 |
| INF_022 | AI | nanotech-third-bridge | By the 2030s, the 'third bridge' of nanotechnology will enable molecular-leve… | Ray Kurzweil | 3/5 | C | 10.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2045-10-31 |
| INF_048 | Energy | global-DC-energy-demand | Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours … | IEA | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | in_progress | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_051 | Energy | tech-as-utility-inversion | Tech-sector data centers will invert the tech-utility relationship: when oper… | Jensen Huang | 3/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| INF_052 | Energy | advanced-fission-PPA | Alphabet has contracted for 500 megawatts from Kairos Power (KP-FHR fluoride-… | Alphabet | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_054 | Energy | synthetic-hydrocarbons-nuclear | Valar HTGR gigasites will chemically store excess energy by synthesizing carb… | Isaiah Taylor | 3/5 | C | 18.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| INF_056 | Energy | OpenAI-Helion-5GW-deal | Helion will supply OpenAI with 5 gigawatts of fusion electricity by 2030 (rou… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 15.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| INF_072 | AI | AGI-scaling-50-50 | There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodolog… | Demis Hassabis | 3/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2042-09-30 |
| ROB_010 | Robotics | watts-are-wealth | 'Watts are wealth' — as machines progressively take over physical production,… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 48.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| SPC_023 | AI | Altman-roadmap-2030-2036 | Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence … | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 18.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 230_007 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment a… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_013 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_016 | Space | orbital-AI | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 92.0% | in_progress | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_021 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_023 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_030 | Macro/Economy | economy | Economy will shift from paying for inputs/hours to paying for verified outcomes. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_037 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_039 | Education | AI-timing | Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; e… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_043 | Crypto | crypto | The economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobst… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_045 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_047 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of t… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_049 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust tr… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_022 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_032 | Space | orbital-AI | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_040 | Macro/Economy | economy | Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_042 | Labor/Jobs | economy | Job loss from AI will take a long while to play out - not a sudden shock to t… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 232_045 | Energy | SpaceX | Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |