Predictions
1,182 of 1,664 predictions match — page 21 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
Filters
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 237_008 | Consumer | AI-scaling | App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate softw… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 241_023 | Energy | AI-timing | 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_016 | Macro/Economy | abundance | Huge backlash against AI abundance without institutional redesign | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_021 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Net job creation likely, exotic new jobs like one-person AI conglomerates | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_022 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_043 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_051 | Energy | AI-scaling | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_056 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Net job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going away | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_059 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | African nations will be impacted least by AI transition | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| COD_SPC_005 | Space | Dragonfly-Titan | NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 70.0% | pending | 2028-07-01 – 2028-07-31 |
| 231_030 | Energy | AI-timing | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmid… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| 234_013 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-05-31 |
| 235_001 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 235_023 | Energy | AI-timing | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 235_026 | Media/Ads | AI-scaling | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 235_032 | Robotics | Optimus | Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2032-08-31 |
| 236_021 | Robotics | Optimus | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2034-11-30 |
| 238_052 | Markets/Stocks | AGI | $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis inter… | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 242_016 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| 243_003 | Auto/Transport | humanoids | By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 244_017 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV ma… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 246_043 | Space | AI-scaling | Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| 247_018 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next e… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 247_036 | AI | crypto | Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-08-31 | |
| IND_022 | Biotech/Longevity | Singularity-2040s-brain-to-brain | AGI arrives before 2029 (Turing test); true Singularity (ASI) occurs in 2040s… | Ray Kurzweil | 5/5 | B | 18.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2049-09-30 |
| INF_020 | Space | orbital-DC-market | In-orbit data-center market will reach approximately $1.77 billion by 2029 an… | BIS Research | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| INF_025 | Robotics | humanoid-deployment | Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 20… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | A | 40.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-09-30 |
| INF_071 | AI | AGI-2029-singularity | Artificial General Intelligence will be achieved by 2029; humans will begin t… | Ray Kurzweil | 5/5 | A | 45.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 230_036 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, target… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2029-06-01 – 2029-06-30 |
| 232_046 | Space | SpaceX | SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars afte… | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2029-06-01 – 2029-06-30 |
| 235_041 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2029-06-01 – 2029-06-30 |
| 230_035 | Macro/Economy | economy | GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2033-12-31 |
| 234_020 | AI | AI-timing | AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 235_028 | Biotech/Longevity | $100T | Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 242_033 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| 242_037 | Space | orbital-AI | China will land on the moon before end of 2030 | China (government) | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 243_031 | Labor/Jobs | autonomous | Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 246_017 | Space | AI-timing | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 246_020 | Geopolitics | orbital-AI | China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 247_020 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 247_031 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 247_035 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 247_047 | Energy | AI-timing | Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| AI_001 | AI | ASI-2030-peak-human | AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable doma… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 32.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_035 | Other | meaning-of-life-post-ASI | In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, s… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2045-12-31 |
| AUT_012 | AI | world-models-AGI-2030-2035 | True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world mo… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 45.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| AUT_023 | Auto/Transport | eVTOL-29B-2030-1T-2040 | Urban air mobility (eVTOL) market will generate $29 billion by 2030, scaling … | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| AUT_026 | Biotech/Longevity | in-vivo-nanobots-2030s | By the 2030s, autonomous nanobots will be deployed directly into the human bl… | Ray Kurzweil | 4/5 | B | 18.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2039-06-30 |
| CMQ_003 | AI | superintelligence | By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| IND_009 | Biotech/Longevity | ASI-2030-cure-all-illnesses | Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all… | Demis Hassabis | 5/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2040-06-30 |