Predictions
105 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 3. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INF_008 | AI | IQ-growth-rate | Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | partial | 2024-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_009 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2025-12-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| 230_001 | AI | AI-timing | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with huma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 230_004 | AI | AI-scaling | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rew… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 230_027 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weap… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 230_028 | AI | AI-timing | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from s… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 230_029 | AI | AI-timing | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| 230_031 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across ma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 230_033 | AI | orbital-AI | Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2033-10-31 |
| 231_046 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plot… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 231_047 | AI | AI-timing | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 232_014 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 232_060 | AI | AI-scaling | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicat… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_006 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-09-30 |
| 234_018 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_026 | AI | AI-timing | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 235_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | miss | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 238_039 | AI | AI-timing | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_004 | AI | AI-timing | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_032 | AI | AI-timing | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few y… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 246_021 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 247_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_057 | AI | AI-scaling | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AI_016 | AI | AI-experience-curve-vs-Moore | The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AUT_002 | AI | unified-mathematical-substrate | Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unif… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| CYB_022 | AI | LiteLLM-supply-chain-vulnerability | Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exem… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_009 | AI | organoid-computing | The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 234_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_016 | AI | $100T | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_047 | AI | AI-scaling | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_048 | AI | AI-scaling | Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30 |
| 238_014 | AI | AI-scaling | Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do an… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_021 | AI | AI-timing | Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_022 | AI | AI-timing | From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_026 | AI | AI-timing | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_027 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_037 | AI | AI-scaling | Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30 |
| 238_038 | AI | AI-scaling | Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attent… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_071 | AI | AI-scaling | Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-tra… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_018 | AI | $100T | Trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-perso… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_021 | AI | AI-timing | Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_057 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_043 | AI | AI-scaling | AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_044 | AI | AI-scaling | Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_045 | AI | economy | AI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_028 | AI | AI-timing | Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderlin… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31 |
| 246_031 | AI | AI-scaling | Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_032 | AI | AI-scaling | Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |