Predictions
319 of 1,622 predictions match — page 5 of 7. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 246_027 | AI | AI-timing | AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathoge… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_035 | AI | AI-timing | Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_048 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after i… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_010 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_011 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_012 | AI | AI-timing | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_012 | AI | AI-scaling | AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-report… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_013 | AI | AI-scaling | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_014 | AI | AI-timing | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_023 | AI | AI-scaling | Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_036 | AI | AI-timing | AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_037 | AI | orbital-AI | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute i… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_039 | AI | NVIDIA | Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and wi… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_048 | AI | AI-scaling | AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_049 | AI | AI-timing | Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligen… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_010 | AI | AI-scaling | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31 |
| 238_005 | AI | AI-timing | By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-09-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| COD_AI_004 | AI | autonomous-agents | Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 55.0% | pending | 2026-12-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| 231_005 | AI | AI-timing | Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 232_001 | AI | AI-timing | Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too a… | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2031-08-31 |
| 233_004 | AI | AI-timing | AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 mo… | Joe Liemandt | 3/5 | D | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 234_003 | AI | AI-timing | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized wh… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 234_021 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 238_070 | AI | AI-scaling | Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 240_012 | AI | AI-timing | Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 241_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science does… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 241_014 | AI | AI-timing | The world a year from today will be nothing like the world today | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 241_039 | AI | AI-timing | In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 242_011 | AI | AI-scaling | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, man… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2033-09-30 |
| 246_011 | AI | AI-scaling | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 247_007 | AI | $100T | Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 247_060 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed … | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 248_006 | AI | AI-scaling | The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| AI_008 | AI | superintelligence-2030 | Once 2027 AGI arrives (AI researchers capable of autonomous research), the in… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 28.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_015 | AI | Last-Economy-decentralization | Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will fo… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2032-08-31 |
| AI_025 | AI | GenAI-wrappers-RadioShack | Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the b… | Mark Cuban | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_036 | AI | RLHF-fails-superintelligence | Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically … | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| CMQ_007 | AI | corporate-revenue | Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_012 | AI | AGI-timeline | AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_016 | AI | intelligence-explosion | Post-AGI (2027+), a decade of human-led algorithmic progress will be compress… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| CYB_027 | AI | orthogonality-thesis | Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomabl… | Nick Bostrom | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| INF_001 | AI | GPU-deployment | Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GP… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| INF_007 | AI | OpenAI-compute-dominance | OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| ROB_001 | AI | runaway-superintelligence-recursive | If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 … | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 22.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| ROB_004 | AI | solve-physics-unification | By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve… | Demis Hassabis | 5/5 | A | 8.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| ROB_027 | AI | paperclip-maximizer-revisited | The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence co… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 35.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |