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114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 464 of 607, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Madina Okot win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | ROB_008 Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... Morgan Stanley | Robotics | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt | Education | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | 229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-03-27 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | US military draft authorized in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-03-12 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Brandon Aiyuk play for New England Patriots in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-23 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 42% |