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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	OphMAE: Bridging Volumetric and Planar Imaging with a Foundation Model for Adaptive Ophthalmological Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	From Data Lifting to Continuous Risk Estimation: A Process-Aware Pipeline for Predictive Monitoring of Clinical Pathways	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	From Data Lifting to Continuous Risk Estimation: A Process-Aware Pipeline for Predictive Monitoring of Clinical Pathways	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	On Computing Total Variation Distance Between Mixtures of Product Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Training-Free Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting with Conformal Seasonal Pools	arxiv 2026-05-05	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	Population-Aware Imitation Learning in Mean-field Games with Common Noise	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	A Comprehensive Analysis of Tokenization and Self-Supervised Learning in End-to-End Automatic Speech Recognition applied on French Language	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	BIT.UA-AAUBS at ArchEHR-QA 2026: Evaluating Open-Source and Proprietary LLMs via Prompting in Low-Resource QA	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	ContextualJailbreak: Evolutionary Red-Teaming via Simulated Conversational Priming	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Shadow-Loom: Causal Reasoning over Graphical World Model of Narratives	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Structural Dilemmas and Developmental Pathways of Legal Argument Mining in the Era of Artificial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Latent Bridge: Feature Delta Prediction for Efficient Dual-System Vision-Language-Action Model Inference	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Sampling-Based Control via Entropy-Regularized Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	FDA ANDA211536: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — CIPLA LTD	fda 2026-04-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA NDA021880: REVLIMID (LENALIDOMIDE) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA ANDA213267: THALIDOMIDE (THALIDOMIDE) — NATCO	fda 2026-04-24	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	FDA ANDA078956: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-04-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA ANDA219593: PREGABALIN (PREGABALIN) — UNICHEM	fda 2026-04-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-07	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.63	Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	The First Token Knows: Single-Decode Confidence for Hallucination Detection	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Rethinking Local Learning: A Cheaper and Faster Recipe for LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Every Step Counts: Step-Level Credit Assignment for Tool-Integrated Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	UniVer: A Unified Perspective for Multi-step and Multi-draft Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	ADAPTS: Agentic Decomposition for Automated Protocol-agnostic Tracking of Symptoms	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	FDA ANDA206387: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — IPCA LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.1	github_release 2021-06-30	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.2	github_release 2019-08-15	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.63	facebookresearch/faiss v1.7.4	github_release 2023-04-20	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	facebookresearch/balance 0.8.0	github_release 2023-04-26	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.34	github_release 2026-01-23	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.63	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28	github_release 2024-09-12	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Patch2Vuln: Agentic Reconstruction of Vulnerabilities from Linux Distribution Binary Patches	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Asymmetric On-Policy Distillation: Bridging Exploitation and Imitation at the Token Level	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Rethinking Vacuity for OOD Detection in Evidential Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Inference-Time Refinement Closes the Synthetic-Real Gap in Tabular Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Super-Level-Set Regression: Conditional Quantiles via Volume Minimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Taming the Entropy Cliff: Variable Codebook Size Quantization for Autoregressive Visual Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	BehaviorGuard: Online Backdoor Defense for Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	LiVeAction: a Lightweight, Versatile, and Asymmetric Neural Codec Design for Real-time Operation	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	FedAttr: Towards Privacy-preserving Client-Level Attribution in Federated LLM Fine-tuning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	FedAttr: Towards Privacy-preserving Client-Level Attribution in Federated LLM Fine-tuning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	Invariant Features in Language Models: Geometric Characterization and Model Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.63	LINC: Decoupling Local Consequence Scoring from Hidden Matching in Constructive Neural Routing	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Can Attribution Predict Risk? From Multi-View Attribution to Planning Risk Signals in End-to-End Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-05-07	243_011 Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.63	Trade-off Functions for DP-SGD with Subsampling based on Random Shuffling: Tight Upper and Lower Bounds	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Structure-Preserving Gaussian Processes Via Discrete Euler-Lagrange Equations	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	AffineLens: Capturing the Continuous Piecewise Affine Functions of Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Physical Fidelity Reconstruction via Improved Consistency-Distilled Flow Matching for Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Don't Lose Focus: Activation Steering via Key-Orthogonal Projections	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	A$^2$TGPO: Agentic Turn-Group Policy Optimization with Adaptive Turn-level Clipping	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	RVPO: Risk-Sensitive Alignment via Variance Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Anatomy of a Query: W5H Dimensions and FAR Patterns for Text-to-SQL Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Rethinking Local Learning: A Cheaper and Faster Recipe for LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Every Step Counts: Step-Level Credit Assignment for Tool-Integrated Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	A Comparative Study of INDI and NDI with Nonlinear Disturbance Observer for Aerial Robotics	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Maximal Controlled Invariant-MPC: Enhancing Feasibility and Reducing Conservatism through Terminal CBF Constraint in Safety-Critical Control	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Optimal Uncertainty-Aware Calibration for the AX=YB Problem	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.63	Will a Hantavirus Vaccine be created in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA	Energy	48%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will this market get between 55-75 unique traders?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-10	235_028 Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	56%
0.63	Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-09	235_043 Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. Salim Ismail	Defense	36%
0.63	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.10	github_release 2025-03-20	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Will Brent Crude Oil close above $110 on May 15th, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-12	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.63	FDA ANDA078885: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA ANDA078982: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — GRANULES	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.63	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.63	LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP (LMT) (CIK 0000936468)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP) (CIK 0000733269)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Beyond GRPO and On-Policy Distillation: An Empirical Sparse-to-Dense Reward Principle for Language-Model Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-12	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	KV-Fold: One-Step KV-Cache Recurrence for Long-Context Inference	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.63	Trajectory-Agnostic Asteroid Detection in TESS with Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	From Message-Passing to Linearized Graph Sequence Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	A New Technique for AI Explainability using Feature Association Map	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Targeted Neuron Modulation via Contrastive Pair Search	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	PriorZero: Bridging Language Priors and World Models for Decision Making	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.63	Keeping Score: Efficiency Improvements in Neural Likelihood Surrogate Training via Score-Augmented Loss Functions	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Learning plug-in surrogate endpoints for randomized experiments	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.63	QDSB: Quantized Diffusion Schrödinger Bridges	arxiv 2026-05-12	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	Understanding Sample Efficiency in Predictive Coding	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	Debiased Model-based Representations for Sample-efficient Continuous Control	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Compositional Neural Operators for Multi-Dimensional Fluid Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	FDA NDA020578: ZOLADEX (GOSERELIN ACETATE) — TERSERA	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	How many people will be regularised in Spain in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-12	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.63	Min-Max Optimization Requires Exponentially Many Queries	arxiv 2026-05-13	241_018 Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) Eric Schmidt	Energy	55%
0.63	A Hierarchical Language Model with Predictable Scaling Laws and Provable Benefits of Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-13	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Decoupled and Divergence-Conditioned Prompt for Multi-domain Dynamic Graph Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%