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79,555 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 116 of 209, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | Lakers vs. Thunder(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 240_006 OpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decades Salim Ismail | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.59 | Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.59 | Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.59 | Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.59 | Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.59 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.59 | UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-02-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-12-22 | 234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-12-22 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 46% | |
| 0.59 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.59 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will El Ahly SC win on 2026-05-20?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.59 | US strike on Cuba by December 31?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.59 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.59 | Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.59 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.59 | Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.59 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.59 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Golden Knights vs. Avalanche(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-04-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Will David Njoku play for Miami Dolphins in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.59 | Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Jonah Heim win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% |