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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.62	Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 29?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 25?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.62	Will an extraterrestrial "abduction" occur during Brazil vs Scotland at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-24	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.62	Will Kenya get a chess international master within 1year?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-24	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	34%
0.62	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-06-24	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	When will Google Release Gemma 5	manifold 2026-06-23	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	31%
0.62	CineCap: Structured Reasoning with Spatio-Temporal Anchors for Cinematographic Video Captioning	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	AdversaBench: Automated LLM Red-Teaming with Multi-Judge Confirmation and Cross-Model Transferability	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	27%
0.62	Breaking Shortcut Learning for Cross-Trial EEG-Guided Target Speech Extraction via Two-Stage Training	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.62	When Retrieval Metrics Mislead: Measuring Policy Signal in Long-Horizon Tool-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Model selection with proper scoring rules on data sets of time series	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Holistic Data Scheduler for LLM Pre-training via Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	A Comparative Study of Bayesian Contextual Bandits for Real-Time Warehouse Sorter Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	One Ruler: A Same-Hands Re-Evaluation of Bivariate Causal Direction on Tuebingen, with a Parameter-Free Compression Baseline	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	SkyJEPA: Learning Long-Horizon World Models for Zero-Shot Sim-to-Real Control of Quadrotors	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	ESBMC-PLC+: A Unified IEC~61131-3 Formal Verification Framework as a PLCverif Successor	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	PDS Joint: A Parametric Double-Spiral Joint Tailored for Dexterous Hands	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	TurboMPC: Fast, Scalable, and Differentiable Model Predictive Control on the GPU	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.62	Flow as Flow: Modeling Robot Velocity Fields as Probability Velocity Fields for Flow-Based Object Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	FDA NDA202245: CODEINE SULFATE (CODEINE SULFATE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA085106: PERCOCET (ACETAMINOPHEN) — OZANTRI	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.62	FDA ANDA088629: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.62	FDA ANDA212451: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — ALKEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA087997: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	FORCE: Efficient VLA Reinforcement Fine-Tuning via Value-Calibrated Warm-up and Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Neural Network Compression (HiReLC): Pruning and Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	MiniOpt: Reasoning to Model and Solve General Optimization Problems with Limited Resources	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Learning with a Single Rollout via Monte Carlo Pass@k Critic	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Supervised Post-training of Speech Foundation Models for Robust Adaptation in Speech Deepfake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	Physics Question Scene Graph: Fine-grained Evaluation of Physical Plausibility in Text-to-Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	FDN: Interpretable Spatiotemporal Forecasting with Future Decomposition Networks	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.62	Phoneme-Level Mispronunciation Screening in Polish-Speaking Children with an Explainable Assistant	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.62	Concept Removal for Frontier Image Generative Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.62	Pre-Warm: Input-Conditioned Weight Initialization for Convolutional Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Training Dynamics of Neural Software Defect Predictors under Coupled Data-Quality Issues	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Evidence for feature-specific error correction in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-23	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.62	Evidence for feature-specific error correction in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Digital Twin-Driven Adaptive Sim-to-Real Alignment via Reinforcement Learning for Vibration-Based Bearing Health Monitoring Under Data Scarcity	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Emcar: Embodied Controller for Animating Robots	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.62	MIL-LC: A Robust Magnetometer-Inertial-LiDAR Fusion Multimodal Localization Framework	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	GROVE: Grounded Pedestrian Simulation via Natural Language for Interactive Social Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	DynaMOMA: Instantaneous Prediction of Grasp Poses for Mobile Manipulation of Dynamic Objects	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	ARTOO-DARTU: Studying AR-HRC With AR Obstruction Mitigation During a Warehouse Task	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	FDA ANDA207808: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — RHODES PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.62	FDA ANDA075968: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — GRAVITI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will Iraq reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.62	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.62	Error-Conditioned Neural Solvers	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Automating Potential-based Reward Shaping with Vision Language Model Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Scaling Multi-Reference Image Generation with Dynamic Reward Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	A Pipeline for Generating Longitudinal Synthetic Clinical Notes Using Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	Anatomy-Guided Residual Motion Diffusion for Controllable 4D Cardiac MRI Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	ProvenAI: Provenance-Native Traces of Evidence in Generated Answers	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	ConflictScore: Identifying and Measuring How Language Models Handle Conflicting Evidence	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Deterministic Pareto-Optimal Policy Synthesis for Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	A Generalization Theory for JEPA-Based World Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.62	HyperDFlash: MHC-Aligned Block Speculative Decoding with Gated Residual Reduction	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.62	Mesh-RL: Coupled subgrid reinforcement learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	MiniOpt: Reasoning to Model and Solve General Optimization Problems with Limited Resources	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Necessary but Not Sufficient: Temperature Control and Reproducibility in LLM-as-Judge Safety Evaluations	arxiv 2026-06-24	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.62	SocialPersona: Benchmarking Personalized Profiling and Response with Multimodal Social-Media Context	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	MPC-Injection: Biasing Off-Policy Locomotion RL Toward Controller-Induced Behavior Basins	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.62	Laplace Space for Cosmological Correlators	arxiv 2026-06-25	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.62	Solana all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.62	Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.62	FDA ANDA206869: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — AMNEAL PHARMS NY	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA210162: BUPRENORPHINE (BUPRENORPHINE) — MYLAN TECH VIATRIS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?(market prob: 58%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-06-28	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	An open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-28	246_048 Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.62	When will Earth-originating life become Kardashev 1.3 total or higher?	manifold 2026-06-27	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	When will Earth-originating life become Kardashev 1.3 total or higher?	manifold 2026-06-27	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.62	Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.62	Will the EU cease to exist within the next 10 years?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-29	239_021 Money will stop being relevant at some point Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	30%
0.62	Fed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-06-28	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	29%
0.62	XRP all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	XRP all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	XRP all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.62	Will the “Stop climate shakedowns act” pass by the end of 2026?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-29	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.62	LeVo 2: Stable and Melodious Song Generation via Hierarchical Representation Modeling and Progressive Post-Training	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Learning from Mistakes: Rollout-Retrieval Lifelong Policy Learning for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	SA-VLA: State-aware tokenizer for improving Vision-Language-Action Models' performance	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.62	SAT-RTS: A systematic framework for tactical knowledge extraction and visualization-based analysis in real-time strategy games	arxiv 2026-06-29	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Unlocking the Visual Record of Materials Science: A Large-Scale Multimodal Dataset from Scientific Literature	arxiv 2026-06-29	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Langshaw: Declarative Interaction Protocols Based on Sayso and Conflict	arxiv 2026-06-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Discovering Collaboration from Novelty: Random Network Distillation for Clustered Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	MOPD: Multi-Teacher On-Policy Distillation for Capability Integration in LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-06-29	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	Scalar Representations of Neural Network Training Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	When Is a Draft Accepted? A Theory of Acceptance in Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Chamber geometry and specification numbers of Boolean threshold functions	arxiv 2026-06-28	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	Information Dynamics of Language Communication	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%