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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.65	ChLogic: Evaluating Robustness of Logical Reasoning in Chinese Expressions	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	LAGO Policy: Latency-Aware Asynchronous Diffusion Policies with Goal-Directed Collision-Free Planning for Smooth Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Rethinking Reward Supervision: Rubric-Conditioned Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Data Intelligence Agents: Interpreting, Modeling, and Querying Enterprise Data via Autonomous Coding Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Compute Efficiency and Serial Runtime Tradeoffs for Stochastic Momentum Methods	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Compute Efficiency and Serial Runtime Tradeoffs for Stochastic Momentum Methods	arxiv 2026-06-17	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.65	CAPRA: Scaling Feedback on Software Architecture Deliverables with a Multi-Agent LLM System	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Skill-Guided Continuation Distillation for GUI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	APT: Atomic Physical Transitions for Causal Video-Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	PSyGenTAB: A Privacy-Preserving Framework for Synthetic Clinical Tabular Data Generation via Constrained Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	From Specification to Execution: AI Assisted Scientific Workflow Management	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	SafeClawBench: Separating Semantic, Audit-Evidence, and Sandbox Harm in Tool-Using LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Diffusion-Proof: Recipe for Formal Theorem Proving Beyond Auto-Regressive Generation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Detecting Hidden ML Training With Zero-Overhead Telemetry	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.65	Native Active Perception as Reasoning for Omni-Modal Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	SAGE: Stochastic Prompt Optimization via Agent-Guided Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Zero-Shot Long-Horizon Dexterous Manipulation via Multi-View 3D-Grounded VLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Mem-World: Memory-Augmented Action-Conditioned World Models for Persistent Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Object-Centric Residual RL for Zero-Shot Sim-to-Real VLA Enhancement	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	PAIWorld: A 3D-Consistent World Foundation Model for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.111.0	github_release 2026-06-18	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-19	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.65	ScaffoldAgent: Utility-Guided Dynamic Outline Optimization for Open-Ended Deep Research	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	A Neuromorphic Reinforcement Learning Framework for Efficient Pathfinding in Robotic Mobile Fulfillment Systems	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	TelcoAgent: A Scalable 5G Multi-KPM Forecasting With 3GPP-Grounded Explainability	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	Temporal Self-Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Hard or Just Unreached? Diagnosing the Sampling Blind Spot in Math-Reasoning Difficulty Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	FAPO: Fully Autonomous Prompt Optimization of Multi-Step LLM Pipelines	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	PsyScore: A Psychometrically-Aware Framework for Trait-Adaptive Essay Scoring and ZPD-Scaffolded Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	JAMER: Project-Level Code Framework Dataset and Benchmark on Professional Game Engines	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. Jensen Huang	AI/Manufacturing	75%
0.65	Clusters are All You Need: Pre-Training the Tsetlin Machine with Semantic Clusters from Language Models for Interpretability	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Slow Brain, Fast Planner: Latency-Resilient VLM-Augmented Urban Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Mem-World: Memory-Augmented Action-Conditioned World Models for Persistent Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-21	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 22?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Semantic Browsing: Controllable Diversity for Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	AI Exposure Scores: what they measure, what they miss, and what comes next	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	RECALL: Recovery Experience Collection for Active Lifelong Learning in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	Causal Discovery in the Era of Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	VideoAgent: All-in-One Framework for Video Understanding and Editing	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Intent-Governed Tool Authorization for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	ThermoLLM: Thermodynamics-Aware HVAC Control with Spatial-Semantic Knowledge Graph	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Beyond Penalizing Mistakes: Stabilizing Efficiency Training in Large Reasoning Models via Adaptive Correct-Only Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Data Evolution by Wittgenstein's Rule Following	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Governance Decay: How Context Compaction Silently Erases Safety Constraints in Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Concordia: JIT-Compiled Persistent-Kernel Checkpointing for Fault-Tolerant LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	70%
0.65	Stage-dependent integer-binary encoding in factorization-machine black-box optimization	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Who Owns the AI Recommendation? A Multi-Industry Empirical Map of Brand Category Ownership Across Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	GRADE: Graph Representation of LLM Agent Dependency and Execution	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	GARIP: A Running-Average Moving Reference for Last-Iterate Self-Play in Two-Player Zero-Sum Games	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.65	Evaluation Awareness Is Not One Capability: Evidence from Open Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	The Language Blind Spot: How Query Language and Brand Recognition Tier Shape AI-Constructed Brand Reputation Across Twelve European Languages	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	HAKARI-Bench: A Lightweight Benchmark for Comparing Retrieval Architectures and Efficiency Settings under Unified Conditions	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	BLUEX v2: Benchmarking LLMs on Open-Ended Questions from Brazilian University Entrance Exams	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	PlanBench-XL: Evaluating Long-Horizon Planning of LLM Tool-Use Agents in Large-Scale Tool Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	PlanBench-XL: Evaluating Long-Horizon Planning of LLM Tool-Use Agents in Large-Scale Tool Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Flatness Preserves Instruction Following in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	DexTeleop-0: Force-Aware Bimanual Dexterous Teleoperation with Ego-Centric Perception towards Shared Autonomy	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30?(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-02-13	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-09	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65		gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.65	Which Rocket Launches Next? III	manifold 2026-04-30	242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis	Space	56%
0.65	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will I get an AI lab offer?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-02	232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will I make IMO in 2028(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-05-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	US Average Gas Price on May 4 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.65	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-11-19	SEM_040 Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. Michael Saylor	Finance/Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.65	GPT 5.5 METR 50% time horizon	manifold 2026-05-05	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.65	Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-05	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.65	Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	openai/openai-python v2.26.0	github_release 2026-03-05	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	openai/openai-python v2.12.0	github_release 2025-12-15	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.94.0	github_release 2026-04-10	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.91.0	github_release 2026-04-07	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	huggingface/transformers v5.2.0	github_release 2026-02-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on May 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	LLM-ADAM: A Generalizable LLM Agent Framework for Pre-Print Anomaly Detection in Additive Manufacturing	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%