Predictions
209 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 5. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230_001 | AI | AI-timing | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with huma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 230_004 | AI | AI-scaling | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rew… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 230_015 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 230_027 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weap… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 230_028 | AI | AI-timing | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from s… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 230_029 | AI | AI-timing | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| 230_031 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across ma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 230_033 | AI | orbital-AI | Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2033-10-31 |
| 231_019 | Other | AI-timing | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in n… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 231_037 | Space | SpaceX | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 231_046 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plot… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 231_047 | AI | AI-timing | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 232_060 | AI | AI-scaling | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicat… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_006 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-09-30 |
| 234_018 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_026 | AI | AI-timing | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_041 | Other | AI-timing | 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 238_039 | AI | AI-timing | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_004 | AI | AI-timing | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_008 | Geopolitics | NVIDIA | NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_032 | AI | AI-timing | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few y… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 240_046 | Media/Ads | AI-timing | Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 242_048 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-scaling | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computationa… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 246_021 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 246_030 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_048 | Energy | AI-timing | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_057 | AI | AI-scaling | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 248_001 | Space | SpaceX | Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual sate… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 248_026 | Other | AI-timing | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 248_031 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajector… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CMQ_063 | Quantum/AI | quantum-AI-integration | Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-scie… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| INF_009 | AI | organoid-computing | The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| SEM_032 | AI/Mathematics | AI-scaling | 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Pr… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | A | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 234_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_009 | Defense | AI-timing | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 234_011 | Defense | AI-timing | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-12-31 |
| 234_016 | AI | $100T | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_029 | Space | orbital-AI | Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_032 | Robotics | humanoids | Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 234_038 | Real Estate | AI-timing | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 234_043 | Education | AI-timing | Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2034-06-30 |
| 234_045 | Space | orbital-AI | Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physic… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 234_047 | AI | AI-scaling | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_048 | AI | AI-scaling | Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30 |
| 234_049 | Space | humanoids | First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot con… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 236_036 | Macro/Economy | economy | Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 236_038 | Education | AI-timing | Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public be… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30 |
| 236_043 | Education | AI-timing | Universities will become largest incubators on the planet | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-05-31 |