Predictions
91 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230_009 | Macro/Economy | economy | US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 230_034 | Macro/Economy | abundance | Abundance will be achieved by 2035. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 231_044 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 232_022 | Macro/Economy | economy | Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 236_017 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 237_013 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweig… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_061 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_068 | Macro/Economy | economy | Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-… | Mark Pack Donovan | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 240_042 | Macro/Economy | economy | Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 241_022 | Macro/Economy | economy | Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 242_049 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| AUT_007 | Macro/Economy | US-GDP-5-to-6-2-percent-2026 | 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing mas… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 5/5 | B | 18.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_020 | Macro/Economy | AI-capex | Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow throug… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_054 | Macro/Economy | abundance-thesis | Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| FUT_006 | Macro/Economy | strategic-creative-destruction | Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deli… | Amy Webb | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| IND_015 | Macro/Economy | economic-inversion-AI-CEO-billionaire | Integration of open agentic systems drives near-term 'economic inversion' — a… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| IND_017 | Macro/Economy | AI-CEO-billionaire-Agentic-Era-50T | Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 22.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| IND_025 | Macro/Economy | Ismail-Agentic-Era-2027-ExO | Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates kn… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| INF_003 | Macro/Economy | AI-infrastructure-buildout | The global AI infrastructure buildout is in its earliest phase — only a few h… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| INF_047 | Macro/Economy | US-GDP-forecast-2026 | 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily b… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_010 | Macro/Economy | $100T | AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 … | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 8.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 229_038 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robo… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_042 | Macro/Economy | jobs | AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Se… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 236_001 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneously | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 236_002 | Macro/Economy | economy | UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2034-06-30 |
| 236_006 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most away | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_009 | Macro/Economy | economy | Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31 |
| 236_032 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI has chance of fixing poverty globally | Andrew Yang | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_036 | Macro/Economy | economy | Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_053 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innov… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 238_054 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce re… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 238_055 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manu… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 238_056 | Macro/Economy | jobs | Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_060 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come fr… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 239_018 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Universal High Income will be implemented | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 239_019 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growth | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 239_021 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Money will stop being relevant at some point | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 239_023 | Macro/Economy | AGI | AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcy | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 239_030 | Macro/Economy | economy | 1000x current economy would saturate human desires | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 240_040 | Macro/Economy | economy | Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 240_059 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materials | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 242_056 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 244_028 | Macro/Economy | jobs | Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move in | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 246_045 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 247_017 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 231_006 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 236_027 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ra… | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 236_031 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workers | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 236_046 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Social unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to think | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 236_047 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |