Predictions

45 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.

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Window (earliest)Window (latest)Prior (high)Prior (low)Conviction (high)ID
IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
244_016Auto/TransportAI-timingAV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry todayDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2025-01-01 – 2026-10-31
243_035Auto/TransportautonomousAustin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national averageDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
243_045Auto/TransportjobsJoby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel timeDara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
244_003Auto/TransportautonomousRegulators will have to decide what a human driver's license looks likeDara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2051-11-30
243_001Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-not…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_004Auto/TransportAI-timingUber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is safeDara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
243_005Auto/TransportautonomousThere will be many many winners in the autonomous spaceDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_006Auto/TransportAI-scalingAutonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like B…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_007Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous mobility will become another trillion-dollar marketplaceDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_008Auto/TransportautonomousStreets will be safer as autonomous cars don't get distracted or tiredDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_009Auto/TransportautonomousRegulation will come into place making autonomous safety case demonstrably su…Dara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_010Auto/TransportautonomousHuman drivers will eventually be removed from Tesla FSD backup roleDara Khosrowshahi5/5C65.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_011Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous driver will be much safer than a human beingDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_012Auto/TransportautonomousLiability costs will come down industry-wide with autonomous drivingDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_016Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous will remain a very large fragmented industry, like OEMsDara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_018Auto/TransportautonomousFleet turnover from human-driven to autonomous will take a very long time due…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_019Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous will become a very big part of developed markets, cost curves will…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_020Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous will take a while to penetrate developing markets (70+ countries U…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_021Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous cars will make it not sensible to own your own carDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_022Auto/TransportautonomousCost per trip will come down and safety per trip will come up as autonomous p…Dara Khosrowshahi5/5C65.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_023Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous is enormous opportunity for TAM expansion across mobility and deli…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_025Auto/TransportautonomousMiddle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle dep…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_026Auto/TransportAI-timingExciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner)Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
243_034Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous is bringing new customers and expanding the market, not just repla…Dara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_036Auto/TransportautonomousPrice of rides will come down with autonomous drivingDara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_047Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous revolution will have even more impact on society than UberDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
244_001Auto/TransportAI-timingTechnology will always be a part of the human driving experienceDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
244_004Auto/TransportAI-timingRace car driving will persist as a sportDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30
244_005Auto/TransportautonomousFewer and fewer drivers on the road, like fewer people knowing how to ride a …Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
244_006Auto/TransportjobsJoby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicl…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30
244_009Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous insurance will have multiple layers: AV provider coverage plus add…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
244_011Auto/TransportautonomousAutonomous transportation will eventually make transportation cheaperDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
244_015Auto/TransportAI-scalingAV insurance model (driver vs platform vs combination) is TBD for a young ind…Dara Khosrowshahi2/5D50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
243_027Auto/TransportjobsJoby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026Dara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
244_013Auto/TransportautonomousUber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu…Dara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
243_028Auto/TransportjobsJoby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027)Dara Khosrowshahi2/5D50.0%pending2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31
243_003Auto/TransporthumanoidsBy 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2029-01-01 – 2029-10-31
244_017Auto/TransportautonomousIlia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV ma…Dara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2029-01-01 – 2029-10-31
243_013Auto/TransportautonomousEvery new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwareDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30
243_014Auto/Transportautonomous10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowDara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30
243_015Auto/TransportautonomousSoftware space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providersDara Khosrowshahi3/5C55.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-10-31
243_017Auto/TransportautonomousCost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomo…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30
244_018Auto/TransportAI-timingIn 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choicesDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30
244_002Auto/TransportautonomousHumans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 year…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending2041-01-01 – 2051-11-30
244_014Auto/TransportAI-timingAV is an industry where Chinese players have a lot to offerDara Khosrowshahi4/5C60.0%pending— – —