Validations Queue

78,926 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 93 of 367, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)

78,926

Reviewed

Filtered

73,332

page 93 / 367

Showing on page

200

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold

Source

All (78926)arxiv (36176)codex_research_pack (134)edgar_8k (3041)fda (3230)gdelt (1218)github_release (3027)manifold (8505)polymarket (23595)

Page size

50 100 200 500

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Threshold:Source:Action:

Source0 selected · 0 visible

Bulk action

Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.65	LoREnc: Low-Rank Encryption for Securing Foundation Models and LoRA Adapters	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	LoREnc: Low-Rank Encryption for Securing Foundation Models and LoRA Adapters	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	A$_3$B$_2$: Adaptive Asymmetric Adapter for Alleviating Branch Bias in Vision-Language Image Classification with Few-Shot Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	\emph{DRIFT}: A Benchmark for Task-Free Continual Graph Learning with Continuous Distribution Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Controlling Logical Collapse in LLMs via Algebraic Ontology Projection over F2	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.65	CRePE: Curved Ray Expectation Positional Encoding for Unified-Camera-Controlled Video Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	What will the price of Bitcoin hit by May 30th UTC?	manifold 2026-05-15	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Hand-in-the-Loop: Improving Dexterous VLA via Seamless Interventional Correction	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Concurrency without Model Changes: Future-based Asynchronous Function Calling for LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.65	Temporal Fair Division in Multi-Agent Systems: From Precise Alternation Metrics to Scalable Coordination Proxies	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	The Rate-Distortion-Polysemanticity Tradeoff in SAEs	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Fast Rates for Inverse Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	AIM-DDI: A Model-Agnostic Multimodal Integration Module for Drug-Drug Interaction Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Not All Timesteps Matter Equally: Selective Alignment Knowledge Distillation for Spiking Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	How to Scale Mixture-of-Experts: From muP to the Maximally Scale-Stable Parameterization	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.65	Reinforcement Learning for Tool-Calling Agents in Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR)	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in June?	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.65	FDA ANDA204345: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — DR REDDYS	fda 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.65	FDA BLA761195: VYVGART (EFGARTIGIMOD ALFA) — ARGENX BV	fda 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will @jatloe make a comment on this market and @DottedCalculator responds NO to the qeustion that @jatloe made?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-18	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.65	Will the May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-16	247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	50%
0.65	Will an all-reused European orbital launch vehicle reach orbit before 2040?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-15	SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley	Space	60%
0.65	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.65	Scale-Invariant Neural Network Optimization: Norm Geometry and Heavy-Tailed Noise	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Federated Learning by Utility-Constrained Stochastic Aggregation for Improving Rational Participation	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	GenTS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Library for Generative Time Series Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Testable and Actionable Calibration for Full Swap Regret	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	StatQAT: Statistical Quantizer Optimization for Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	PEIRA: Learning Predictive Encoders through Inter-View Regressor Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-30	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.65	VideoMLA: Low-Rank Latent KV Cache for Minute-Scale Autoregressive Video Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Archon: A Unified Multimodal Model for Holistic Digital Human Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Archon: A Unified Multimodal Model for Holistic Digital Human Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Token-Level Generalization in LoRA Adapter Backdoors: Attack Characterization and Behavioral Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	Token-Level Generalization in LoRA Adapter Backdoors: Attack Characterization and Behavioral Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	BioRefusalAudit: Auditing Biosecurity Refusal Depth Using General and Domain-Fine-Tuned Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-28	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.65	Projectional Decoding: Towards Semantic-Aware LLM Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	CityGen: Structure-Guided City-Style Synthesis for Cross-City Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-05-28	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	Croissant Tasks: A Metadata Format for Reproducible Machine Learning Evaluations	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	NICE: A Theory-Grounded Diagnostic Benchmark for Social Intelligence of LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	EviLink: Multi-Path Schema Linking with Uncertainty-Guided Evidence Acquisition for Large-Scale Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	DeepSurvey: Enhancing Analytical Depth and Citation Reliability in Automated Survey Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	The Curse of Helpfulness: Inverse Scaling Law in Robustness to Distractor Instructions via DistractionIF	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	SGMD: Score Gradient Matching Distillation for Few-Step Video Diffusion Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Chess-World-Model: A 10M-Game Benchmark for Exact State Tracking from Chess Move Sequences	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	From Short Histories to Long Futures: Horizon-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Long Horizon Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	MIRAGE: Adaptive Multimodal Gating for Whole-Brain fMRI Encoding	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	The Interplay Between Interpolation and Aggregation in Regression: Optimal Sample Complexity	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Real-Time Retargeting Using Controllability Boundary for Chandrayaan-3 Lunar Landing	arxiv 2026-05-28	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	41%
0.65	GrepSeek: Training Search Agents for Direct Corpus Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	EvoRubric: Self-Evolving Rubric-Driven RL for Open-Ended Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	ActTraitBench: Quantifying the Knowledge-Decision Gap in Large Language Models via Human-Grounded Behavioral Validation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	GAPD: Gold-Action Policy Distillation for Agentic Reinforcement Learning in Knowledge Base Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Revisiting Observation Reduction for Web Agents: Comprehensive Evaluation with a Lightweight Framework	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	Learnable Assessment Skills for LLM-based Automated Scoring: Rubric Construction via Iterative Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Wait! There's a Way Out: A Decision Mechanism for Forecasting Conversational Derailment	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	Replicable Simulation-Based Robot Validation through Provenance	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Replicable Simulation-Based Robot Validation through Provenance	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	FLIP: Real-Time and Resilient Formation Planning for Large-Scale DIstributed Swarms via Point Cloud Registration	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.105.0	github_release 2026-05-28	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.104.1	github_release 2026-05-22	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Bitcoin hit $68,000 or $78,000 first?	manifold 2026-05-31	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	When will Codex hit 6M WAUs?	manifold 2026-06-01	CMQ_039 TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/month by 2026 to meet baseline demand from NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscaler ASICs. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Packaging	71%
0.65	Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-02	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.65	Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-02	IND_019 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... Morgan Stanley	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.65	Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-05-31	SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley	Space	60%
0.65	Where Do Deep-Research Agents Go Wrong? Span-Level Error Localization in Agent Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	OpenWebRL: Demystifying Online Multi-turn Reinforcement Learning for Visual Web Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	AutoMedBench: Towards Medical AutoResearch with Agentic AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Large Pretrained Models for Instance Segmentation Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	LayerRoute: Input-Conditioned Adaptive Layer Skipping via LoRA Fine-Tuning for Agentic Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Demystifying Multimodal Biomolecular Co-design With Intrinsic Geodesic Coupling	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.65	RoleCDE:Benchmarking and Mitigating Role-Alignment Trade-offs in Role-Playing Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	TimeSage-MT: A Multi-Turn Benchmark for Evaluating Agentic Time Series Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.65	A Minimalist Brain-Computer Musical Interface for Real-Time Emotion-Driven Sonification: System Design and Preliminary Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-31	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.65	Hierarchical Online Prompt Mutation with Dual-Loop Feedback for Guardrailed Evidence Document Generation: A Production-Evaluation Case Study	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Towards Automated Discovery: A Review of Generative Models, Multimodal Learning and Closed-Loop Workflows in Inverse Materials Design	arxiv 2026-06-01	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.65	Towards Automated Discovery: A Review of Generative Models, Multimodal Learning and Closed-Loop Workflows in Inverse Materials Design	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.65	The Ghost Couple: Correlated LLM Name Priors and Their Haunting of the Web and Academic Publishing	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	A Theoretical Framework for Self-Play Theorem Proving Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Quantifying the Energy Floor: Direct Measurement and Replay Buffer Bias in SAC-Based HVAC Control on sbsim	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	CART: Context-Anchored Recurrent Transformer -- A Parameter-Efficient Architecture with Learned Stability	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	CRAM: Centroid-Routing and Adaptive MoE for Multimodal Continual Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	WAXAL-NET: Finetuned Edge ASR Across 19 African Languages	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Training Prompt Matters: State-Adaptive Optimization for Robust Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Don't Ask the LLM to Track Freshness: A Deterministic Recipe for Memory Conflict Resolution	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	On the Generalization Gap in Self-Evolving Language Model Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	When Is 0.1% Enough? Analyzing the Combined Effects of Dimensionality Reduction and Quantization on Text Embedding Compression	arxiv 2026-05-31	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	A Registry-Bound LLM Pipeline for Evidence-Grounded Trait Extraction across Tropical Plants, Aquatic Species, and Exotic Pets	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.65	Robust Asynchronous Planning via Auto-Formalization	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Lost in Delusion: Examining LLM Safety Under User Delusions and Distress	arxiv 2026-05-31	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.65	Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-02	247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	50%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	LLMs Can Leak Training Data But Do They Want To? A Propensity-Aware Evaluation of Memorization in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	DisasterBench: A Multimodal Benchmark for UAV-Based Disaster Response in Complex Environments	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Towards the Readability of LLM-Generated Codes through Multitask Representation Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Unsupervised Pattern Analysis in Japanese Veterinary Toxicology: A Regulatory-Compliant Framework for Cross-Species Risk Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-04	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	WorldFly: A World-Model-Based Vision-Language-Action Model for UAV Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Integrating Mechanistic and Data-Driven Models for Neurological Disorders through Differentiable Programming	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.65	GenTI: Benchmarking LLMs for Autonomous IDPS Rule Generation for Unseen Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.65	Cognitive Threat Intelligence and Explainable Federated Security Analytics for distributed Infrastructure Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Data Flow Control: Data Safety Policies for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	LongSpace: Exploring Long-Horizon Spatial Memory from Perception to Recall in Video	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guarantee	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	DAS-PINNs for high-dimensional partial differential equations: extending deep adaptive sampling to spacetime domains	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	DBHN-Net: Dual-Branch Hybrid Neural Network For Low-Complexity Monaural Speech Enhancement	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	When Denser Credit Is Not Enough: Evidence-Calibrated Policy Optimization for Long-Horizon LLM Agent Training	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Revisiting Prototype Rehearsal for Exemplar-Free Continual Learning: Manifold-Aware Boundary Sampling with Adaptive Class-Balanced Loss	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	Pattern Selectivity is Not Task-Causal Structure: A Cross-Architecture Mechanistic Study of Composed-Task Circuits in 1B-Class Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Reinforcement Learning from Rich Feedback with Distributional DAgger	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Epistemic Injustice in Language Models: An Audit of Pretraining Filters and Guardrails	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.65	Asuka-Bench: Benchmarking Code Agents on Underspecified User Intent and Multi-Round Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-04	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.65	TARPO: Token-Wise Latent-Explicit Reasoning via Action-Routing Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Stability vs. Manipulability: Evaluating Robustness Under Post-Decision Interaction in LLM Judges	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Validity Threats for Foundation Model Research	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Large Language Models in K-12 Education: Alignment with State Curriculum Standards and Student Personas	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Benchmarking Living-Screen-Native GUI Agents on Short-Video Platforms	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Real-World Deployment of a 5G-Connected Edge-Controlled Aerial Robot in Industrial Subterranean Mines	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Inverse Manipulation through Symbolic Planning and Residual Operator Learning	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	CoRe-MoE: Contrastive Reweighted Mixture of Experts for Multi-Terrain Humanoid Locomotion with Gait Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	DEFINED: A Data-Efficient Computational Framework for Fine-Grained Creativity Assessment in Debate Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Beyond Post-hoc Explanation: Toward Glassbox AI via Probabilistic Mediation	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	DyCon: Dynamic Reasoning Control via Evolving Difficulty Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Neuro-Symbolic Learning for Long-Horizon Task Planning Under Complex Logical Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Does Appearance Help? A Systematic Study of Image-Based Re-Identification in Online 3D Multi-Pedestrian Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Beyond Linear and Overcomplete Regimes: A Mean-Field Analysis of Bottleneck Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	The Lipreading Gap: Do VSR Models Perceive Visual Speech Like Human Lipreaders?	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	Geometry of Semantic Space: Comparative Study of Discrete and Continuous Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Are Large Language Models Suitable for Graph Computation? Progress and Prospects	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Rapid co-design of Buoyancy-assisted robots for Challenging Locomotion using Gaussian Evolutionary Specialists	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.65	CAPE: Contrastive Action-conditioned Parallel Encoding for Embodied Planning	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	T-GMP: Terrain-conditioned Generative Motion Priors for Versatile and Natural Humanoid Locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Correlation Is Not Enough: Embedding Human Metadata for Individual Causal Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	End-to-End Context Compression at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-08	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.65	From Rigid to Dynamic: Entropy-Guided Adaptive Inference for Long-Context LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	LargeMonitor: Monitoring Online Task-Free Continual Learning via Large Pretrained Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Capability-Aligned Hierarchical Learning for Tool-Augmented LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.65	In-Context Learning for Latent Space Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Active Flow Expansion for Out-of-Distribution Discovery: from Theory to Molecules	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.65	A Geometric Measure of Linear Separability for Neural Representations	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Rank Intervals for Leaderboards: A Hierarchical Framework for Model Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	SkillHone: A Harness for Continual Agent Skill Evolution Through Persistent Decision History	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	A Theoretical Analysis of Memory and Overfitting Phenomena in Stochastic Interpolation Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	Multi-Hop Knowledge Composition is Bound by Pretraining Exposure	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	Sycophancy as a Multilingual Alignment Failure: How Safety Degrades Across Languages, Topics, and Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Forward-Free Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Goal Sets, Not Goal States: Queryable Robot Goals through Goal-Set Hindsight Relabeling	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	RPO-PDT: Demonstrating Role-Play-Based Knowledge Adaptation for Student Support Dialogue (Demonstration System)	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	PhysGraph: A Physics-aware 3D Scene Graph for Perception and Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	A Unifying Lens on Supervised Fine-Tuning Through Target Distribution Design	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	Designed by Journalists, but Is It for Readers? Rethinking AI Disclosures and Transparency in News	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.65	Beyond Uniform Token-Level Trust Region in LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Detecting Knowledge Gaps from Conversational AI Interactions Using Curriculum Prerequisite Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_030 Eureka Labs vision: 'teacher + AI symbiosis' that scales human expertise infinitely — generating hyper-capable problem-solvers aligned with the space-colonization-workforce demand of the 2030s. Andrej Karpathy	Education	55%
0.65	Unifying Data, Memory, and Compute Efficiency in LLM training: A Survey	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Test-time Adversarial Takeover: A Real-time Hijacking Interface against Robotic Diffusion Policies	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Catching One in Five: LLM-as-Judge Blind Spots in Production Multi-Turn Transaction Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Hyperbolic Neural Population Geometry Benefits Computation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Hyperbolic Neural Population Geometry Benefits Computation	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	OncoTraj: a public benchmark for longitudinal resistance prediction in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer on osimertinib	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.65	Limitations of Learning Tanh Neural Networks with Finite Precision	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	Conservation Laws from Data Symmetry in Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.65	On-sky demonstration of reinforcement learning for adaptive optics control	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	From Observation to Intervention: A Causal Audit of Expert Importance in Mixture-of-Experts Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Toward Proactive RF Charging Scheduling: Generative AI for Decision Support	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.65	Large Language Models as Modal Models in Linguistics	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	WebChallenger: A Reliable and Efficient Generalist Web Agent	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	An Exposure-Time-Aligned Primary-Path Architecture for Autonomous-Driving ECUs	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Gradient based Bilevel for Inverse Optimal Control, a Riemannian approach	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	GUIDE: Goal-Initialized Directional Understanding for End-to-End Visual Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	GUIDE: Goal-Initialized Directional Understanding for End-to-End Visual Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Uncovering Vulnerability of Vision-Language-Action Models under Joint-Level Physical Faults	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	facebookresearch/esm v1.0.0	github_release 2022-08-22	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	DiffCold: A Diffusion-based Generative Model for Cold-Start Item Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	MODF-SIR: A Multi-agent Omni-modal Distilled Framework for Social Intelligence Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	The Art of Interrogation: Consistency Amplifies Factuality in Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Designing AI-Supported Focus Groups: A Role x Modality Playbook	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Reason, Then Re-reason: Cross-view Revisiting Improves Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Runtime Skill Audit: Targeted Runtime Probing for Agent Skill Security	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	TreeSeeker: Tree-Structured Trial, Error, and Return in Deep Search	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%