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94,071 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 250 of 481, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-06-25 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | ||
| 0.59 | Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Belgium (-2.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.59 | Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 79%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-03-06 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.59 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.59 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | SPC_006 Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual revenues exceeding $20 billion — internal cash flow essentially eliminates SpaceX's requirement for public market capital and funds high-risk developme... SpaceX | Space | 88% | |
| 0.59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 28% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.59 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.59 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2025-09-14 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.59 | Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.59 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.59 | Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.59 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-16 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | |
| 0.59 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-08 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.59 | Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% |