Predictions
1,159 of 1,621 predictions match — page 9 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240_033 | AI | AI-timing | AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_038 | Labor/Jobs | humanoids | Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans | Jason Calacanis | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_040 | Macro/Economy | economy | Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 240_047 | Robotics | AI-timing | Physical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 240_049 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 240_053 | AI | AI-timing | AI will generate millions of novel inventions overnight; patents become meani… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_054 | AI | AGI | ASI will reinvent patent and copyright practices | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31 |
| 240_057 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_059 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materials | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 241_002 | Robotics | humanoids | Robots will take longer than digital/software systems to have impact | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 242_002 | Space | autonomous | Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_003 | Markets/Stocks | $100T | Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_004 | Markets/Stocks | NVIDIA | Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_006 | AI | AI-timing | Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 242_007 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value | Prediction markets | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 242_008 | Energy | AI-scaling | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-11-30 |
| 242_009 | Space | orbital-AI | We will have multiple Dyson swarms | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 242_014 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Human driving will become illegal starting in city centers, then broadening out | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_017 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Self-driving will become 95-97% safer than human driving | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 242_018 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Human driving will never become illegal; driving will be redefined as higher … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 242_020 | Auto/Transport | AGI | Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_021 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 242_022 | Real Estate | AI-timing | Personal garages at home will disappear | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 242_024 | Real Estate | AI-scaling | Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values up | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31 |
| 242_025 | Real Estate | AI-scaling | 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 242_026 | Auto/Transport | SpaceX | Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch c… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_027 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humans | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_028 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Goldman Sachs | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_029 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employees | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 242_030 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Near-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_032 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_034 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) | Chamath Palihapitiya | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 242_036 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple co… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 242_039 | Space | AI-timing | NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars | Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator) | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_040 | Space | economy | Mars/Europa/planets will have ubiquitous microbial life | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_041 | Space | AI-timing | United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_043 | AI | AI-scaling | AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_044 | AI | AI-scaling | Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_045 | AI | economy | AI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_046 | AI | AI-scaling | Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_050 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_052 | AI | AI-scaling | Cost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-drivi… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_053 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | New car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilization | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31 |
| 242_054 | AI | AI-timing | Terafab initial capex $25B, total buildout $150B+ minimum, possibly $500B | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 242_055 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 242_056 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 242_058 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30 |
| 242_059 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_001 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-not… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_004 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Uber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is safe | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |