Predictions

231 of 1,607 predictions match — page 5 of 5. Click any row to view its detail.

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IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
230_035Macro/EconomyeconomyGDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-01-01 – 2033-12-31
246_020Geopoliticsorbital-AIChina will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).Alex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31
247_031Biotech/LongevityAI-timingVirtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030)Alex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30
230_007RoboticsAI-scalingLobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment a…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
230_016Spaceorbital-AIData center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbi…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5B92.0%in_progress2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
230_023Biotech/LongevityAI-timingReversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able …Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
230_039EducationAI-timingEducational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; e…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
230_043CryptocryptoThe economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobst…Alex Wissner-Gross2/5C40.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
230_045Macro/EconomyAI-scalingGDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
231_032Spaceorbital-AIEveryone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
231_040Macro/EconomyeconomyIreland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime …Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
235_045ConsumerAI-timingMost volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by …Alex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
235_018Labor/JobsAI-scalingSingle-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in …Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2031-01-01 – 2031-12-31
242_047Biotech/LongevityAI-timingFrontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 yearsAlex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2031-01-01 – 2031-11-30
246_041EnergyAI-timingData centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years.Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2031-01-01 – 2031-11-30
246_042AIAI-timingOn 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans livi…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2031-01-01 – 2036-08-31
232_059Macro/EconomyAGIUniversal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on …Alex Wissner-Gross2/5C40.0%pending2031-06-01 – 2031-06-30
230_038AIAI-timingAI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution eff…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30
232_039Biotech/LongevityAI-timing150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that.Alex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30
232_048SpaceAI-timingEarth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at …Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2034-06-01 – 2034-06-30
IND_024Macro/EconomySolve-Everything-2035-abundanceAttainment of total material abundance by 2035 driven by AI-optimized physica…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5C15.0%pending2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31
232_038Space$100TLunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity.Alex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending2035-06-01 – 2035-06-30
232_024Macro/EconomyAI-timingSan Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if tr…Alex Wissner-Gross2/5C40.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31
234_036Labor/JobsjobsJob displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries wil…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31
232_049Spaceorbital-AIDyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moo…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5A30.0%pending2040-06-01 – 2040-06-30
235_040Spaceorbital-AIEarth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless o…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2070-06-01 – 2070-06-30
238_050OtherAI-timingSci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; …Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending— – —
238_057Macro/EconomyabundanceLaws of economics and thermodynamics will still apply despite AI abundanceAlex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending— – —
238_069GeopoliticsAI-timingThe path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive na…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending— – —
240_052Biotech/LongevityAI-timingUploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the futureAlex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending— – —
247_014GeopoliticsAI-timingPoliticization of AI could have been delayed by at least 2 yearsAlex Wissner-Gross2/5C40.0%pending— – —